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How to calculate the odds of winning a double-elimination tournament.

So let's say Bill is playing in a single-elimination tournament. If Bill had an average win % against each person in the group of 80%, then I think the chance of him winning the entire event is .8x where X is the number of rounds. How do I figure this out if the tournament is double-elimination?
This isn't homework or anything, I am just trying to figure it out for fun but don't know how.
submitted by fspluver to askmath [link] [comments]

Gamestop Big Picture: Theory, Strategy, Reality

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.
Before I get into Monday's action, a couple of things:
I wanted to first give a shout out to piddlesthethug for capturing this screenshot, which shows that moment in time I referenced in my third Gamestop post, where some poor soul got sniped while sweeping the 29 January 115 calls. I added it into the post with an edit, but my guess is most who read the post a while back would have missed it. I guess my mental math in the moment was off as you can see from the image that the cost was actually just shy of $500k rather than $440k as I wrote in the post. Brutal.
People have also asked me where I stand on this trade. I was lucky to get in early, trade some momentum, and retain a sizeable core holding (relative to my play account). As I've mentioned some comments, my core holding, which I will hold until this saga plays itself out, would buy me a new car, all cash. Though after today I'd have to downgrade from a lower end Lexus to a Corolla lol.
Alright, so, today's action.
I have to admit that I was just glancing at the chart between writing emails, working on excel spreadsheets, conference calls, and meetings. Whenever I could, I was listening to CNBC in the background, and taking a closer look whenever I heard anything that might move sentiment, or theoretically telegraph an attack as had happened so many times last week.
In my opinion the price action played out almost by-the-numbers according to a squeeze campaign strategy as I laid out in my previous post. I want to be clear, however, that while it was consistent with what I laid out (liquidity drying up, trying to skirmish at lower and lower price points), you could reasonably interpret it other ways. As I mentioned in at least one comment, seeing things play out in a manner consistent with your expectations is by no means positive confirmation that your thesis is correct. It just happens to be consistent with the evidence you have so far. Always keep that in mind.
I tried responding to a few comments and questions in realtime as I got notifications on my phone. Just as a heads up, I won't always be able to do so, and it seems like there were a number of knowledgeable people commenting in realtime anyway. As I've said in comments on my previous posts, I am definitely not the smartest person in the room, so don't just take my word for it just because I'm the original poster. Please challenge anything I say if you feel I'm mistaken, and don't dismiss out of hand people who may have a different viewpoint.
One thing I thought I noticed in early morning market hours action was that there was no sell order depth above the ticker price, which I interpret as a good sign. Downward pushes into fairly good volume got sucked back up largely in a low-volume vacuum. The most extreme example of this was the first push right at market open. Tons of volume to push the price down, then a tiny fraction of volume as price got sucked back up. This means very little continued panicking and bailing due to the aggressive push, resulting in gaps to the upside on the follow-on buying. There were messages and comments from people concerned that low price would let the short side cover, but, as I explained, low price doesn't help the short side unless they can buy at that low price in meaningful volume. That sort of action where price gaps up as soon as buying (whether by shorts or longs) is driving price tells you that there isn't much meaningful volume to be had at the lower prices. From a higher level view, volume through the day dropped as price dropped, and that seems to have remained consistently true throughout the day.
There was some very strange after-market volume. No idea what that may have been, other than maybe hedge unwinding as T+2 contract settlement outcomes were determined. It seemed, at least to me, to be too much volume in too dense a time window to be retailers bailing out of their accounts en mass. It would make no sense to do so into the vacuum of after hours anyway rather than the firmer price support of market hours.
I got messages that I was both a short side hedge fund shill and a long side pump and dump fraudster trying to somehow take peoples' money. My sentiment analysis KPIs thus indicate I'm likely striking a healthy balance (lol).

The Game (Theory)

Ok, but seriously, is this situation a pump and dump?
Possibly.
I say possibly because, as I stated in a comment, a failed squeeze campaign is effectively identical to a pump and dump in that the only thing that happens is capital is transferred mostly from people who got in later to people who got in earlier. Even worse, in aggregate a good amount of capital may end up being transferred from the campaigners to the short side. Not that it was necessarily intended to be that way from the start--it's just what ends up happening if the campaign fails.
Ok, so failure aside, what are the dynamics of the trade? What kind of game is this?
In simplified terms, I'd describe a squeeze campaign where the short side doubles down as a modified dollar auction where the winning side also takes the losing side's bid money. In other words, at an aggregate level, it's winner take all, go hard or go home, with all the excitement of market action in the middle. Note that I said in aggregate and with market action in the middle, as that basically means even the winning side will have individuals who lose possibly everything if they get washed out before the end. As I mentioned in some comments where I urged people to consider taking profits if they needed the money, this is going to be a white-knuckle trade to the very end.

Power

For most of our lives, most of the time, the saying that 'information is power' and the closely related 'knowledge is power' are abstract, philosophical truisms that people say to try to sound cool and edgy. More tangible and relevant to our daily lives might be 'money is power', or, for the least fortunate, the threat and reality of physical force.
Today, for many in the GME trade, that previously abstract philosophical truism gained intense and urgent relevance. What is current SI? Can you trust numbers from S3? What about Ortex? Are there counterfeit shares in play? What is the significance of Failures to Deliver? Can the short side cover their position off the exchange? etc. etc.
Being in this situation, if nothing else, has lifted the veil for many people. The right information, in the right circumstances, is incredibly powerful. It outlines in stark contrast the power dynamics of information asymmetry.
If you want to exercise more agency in your future as a trader and investor, you have to make a habit of cultivating your critical thinking skills and ensuring you have diverse and often divergent sources of information. Do not let yourself be trapped in an information bubble where you can be easily manipulated. Most of all, try to avoid developing a siege mentality at all costs. If nothing else, in my opinion, it's critical for your long-term financial success.
I don't know the answer to those questions definitively, and my purpose in creating this account and posting is absolutely not to get people to listen and necessarily believe everything I write. In fact, it would make me happier if I see people use some of the tools, techniques, and concepts I've tried to introduce to challenge some of my thinking. Catching my mistakes helps me. Doing it in the open for all to read helps everyone.

Faith, Conviction, Calculated Risk

Many people trade and invest according to wildly divergent strategies.
Some people, including those that most Wall Street types consider to be 'responsible' investors, invest on blind faith. You put your capital is someone else's hands (hopefully a qualified fiduciary), and trust that they will do a good job. The only judgment you exercise really is in choosing the person(s) in which to place your faith. This is not entirely unlike what many WSBettors are doing with respect to DFV. I do this with my retirement accounts, though lately I've been considering transferring about half my retirement capital to a self-directed IRA.
Others trade on conviction. They have, for whatever reason, a very strong belief in an investment thesis that they are willing to put to the test by putting capital at risk, and are willing to lean into the thesis through unfavorable price action so long as no disconfirming evidence comes to light. I consider value investors to fall into this category.
Others are momentum traders and 'technical analysts', who are trying to read the market data to look for asymmetrical calculated risk opportunity. These opportunities need not necessarily be tied to any particular underlying fundamental investment thesis. All that matters is whether you win on a sufficiently frequent basis and carefully manage your downside risk.
I think it's healthy to try to gain an understanding of all three approaches. I personally also find it necessary to be careful if you find yourself switching between those approaches mid-trade. I.e., if you started in the GME trade on faith, it may be deeply disturbing if you find yourself in the no-man's land between faith and conviction, where you have learned enough to understand more of the risks in the trade, but not enough to understand the underlying investment thesis of how it could play out. I'm not saying you shouldn't try to make that transition--just try to maintain self awareness if you choose to do so to avoid making any rash decisions.

Swimming In The Deep

So, the consistent #1 question I always get: what happens next? My consistent answer, which I know frustrates everyone, is I don't know, and no one else does either.
One person in the comments made an astute observation that perhaps the truth, which some may find disturbing, is that our fate really lies in the hands of the whales on the long side rather than retail being in the driver's seat. This may very well be true. I would give it better than even odds at this point. In fact, even if retail collectively represents more shares in this trade, retail is not a well-organized, monolithic entity, and therefore would have more difficulty playing a decisive role at critical times.
Another question I got, which was a very good one to be asking, is what evidence do we have that there really are whales on the long side? For me, there have been critical actions over the past few days that I would have found to be highly unlikely to be achievable by retail investors, such as the sustained HFT duel into the close on Friday. That was very consistent, relatively well controlled, and sustained push on volume of 6-7mio shares traded in the $250 - $330/share price range. Oversimplified math would peg that at just shy of $2bn in capital flow. That is not retail--particularly with so many retail brokerages restricting trading at that time. The 17mio shares sold into the aftermarket action consistent with a squeeze (and Ortex reported reduction in short interest) is also definitely not retail. Others have pointed out massive action in the options today. Tons of block purchases in the millions of dollars and high 6 figures. Not retail.
All of that being said, does that really change very much? Even if you consider yourself to be part of a movement, and have genuine feelings of solidarity with your retail fellows (I do, which is why I'm writing these posts and holding that core position), in the end you are trading as an individual. This is a point that I have made repeatedly. In the end, you need to know yourself, know your trade, and have a plan. Your plan may conceivably be to follow someone else (I know many are following DFV to whatever the end may be), but in the end even that is still your plan as an individual.
If my thesis is correct we will continue to see lower trade volumes, and price grinding down to a floor of harder support, possibly even at the retail line of support (~$148/$150) I outlined in a prior post. There may also be some price dislocation tomorrow depending on options contract T+2 settlement impact. I don't know enough about what to expect there. If the squeeze is to happen, unless RH lifting restrictions or people transferring their accounts causes a surge of retail momentum, it will happen after that type of price movement continues for a while (maybe days, maybe longer), until sufficient liquid float has been locked up.
Right now options action is heavily weighted to puts, so any market maker hedging activity will put more pressure on price.
If the squeeze fails to happen there won't be a siren, ringing of a bell, or anything like that. It might happen gradually and non-obviously until suddenly, as only the market seems to be able to do, it becomes obvious that whoever's still there has been left holding the bag. Hopefully this isn't the case, but if it is I'll be right there with what at that point may only buy me a razor scooter rather than a car lol.
If it succeeds, it should be fairly obvious. Just don't forget to ring the register!
Either way, this is market history in the making. As I said in a previous comment, when you ride the rocket, it's definitely not going to be smooth--but it might just be awesome.
Apologies for the lengthy post again. Good luck in the market!
submitted by jn_ku to investing [link] [comments]

Gamestop Big Picture: Theory, Strategy, Reality

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.
Note: If you have insightful/challenging comments, please consider putting them on the main post as soon as it get approve (assuming it gets approved) on investing*.*
Before I get into Monday's action, a couple of things:
I wanted to first give a shout out to piddlesthethug for capturing this screenshot, which shows that moment in time I referenced in my third Gamestop post, where some poor soul got sniped while sweeping the 29 January 115 calls. I added it into the post with an edit, but my guess is most who read the post a while back would have missed it. I guess my mental math in the moment was off as you can see from the image that the cost was actually just shy of $500k rather than $440k as I wrote in the post. Brutal.
People have also asked me where I stand on this trade. I was lucky to get in early, trade some momentum, and retain a sizeable core holding (relative to my play account). As I've mentioned some comments, my core holding, which I will hold until this saga plays itself out, would buy me a new car, all cash. Though after today I'd have to downgrade from a lower end Lexus to a Corolla lol.
Alright, so, today's action.
I have to admit that I was just glancing at the chart between writing emails, working on excel spreadsheets, conference calls, and meetings. Whenever I could, I was listening to CNBC in the background, and taking a closer look whenever I heard anything that might move sentiment, or theoretically telegraph an attack as had happened so many times last week.
In my opinion the price action played out almost by-the-numbers according to a squeeze campaign strategy as I laid out in my previous post. I want to be clear, however, that while it was consistent with what I laid out (liquidity drying up, trying to skirmish at lower and lower price points), you could reasonably interpret it other ways. As I mentioned in at least one comment, seeing things play out in a manner consistent with your expectations is by no means positive confirmation that your thesis is correct. It just happens to be consistent with the evidence you have so far. Always keep that in mind.
I tried responding to a few comments and questions in realtime as I got notifications on my phone. Just as a heads up, I won't always be able to do so, and it seems like there were a number of knowledgeable people commenting in realtime anyway. As I've said in comments on my previous posts, I am definitely not the smartest person in the room, so don't just take my word for it just because I'm the original poster. Please challenge anything I say if you feel I'm mistaken, and don't dismiss out of hand people who may have a different viewpoint.
One thing I thought I noticed in early morning market hours action was that there was no sell order depth above the ticker price, which I interpret as a good sign. Downward pushes into fairly good volume got sucked back up largely in a low-volume vacuum. The most extreme example of this was the first push right at market open. Tons of volume to push the price down, then a tiny fraction of volume as price got sucked back up. This means very little continued panicking and bailing due to the aggressive push, resulting in gaps to the upside on the follow-on buying. There were messages and comments from people concerned that low price would let the short side cover, but, as I explained, low price doesn't help the short side unless they can buy at that low price in meaningful volume. That sort of action where price gaps up as soon as buying (whether by shorts or longs) is driving price tells you that there isn't much meaningful volume to be had at the lower prices. From a higher level view, volume through the day dropped as price dropped, and that seems to have remained consistently true throughout the day.
There was some very strange after-market volume. No idea what that may have been, other than maybe hedge unwinding as T+2 contract settlement outcomes were determined. It seemed, at least to me, to be too much volume in too dense a time window to be retailers bailing out of their accounts en mass. It would make no sense to do so into the vacuum of after hours anyway rather than the firmer price support of market hours.
I got messages that I was both a short side hedge fund shill and a long side pump and dump fraudster trying to somehow take peoples' money. My sentiment analysis KPIs thus indicate I'm likely striking a healthy balance (lol).

The Game (Theory)

Ok, but seriously, is this situation a pump and dump?
Possibly.
I say possibly because, as I stated in a comment, a failed squeeze campaign is effectively identical to a pump and dump in that the only thing that happens is capital is transferred mostly from people who got in later to people who got in earlier. Even worse, in aggregate a good amount of capital may end up being transferred from the campaigners to the short side. Not that it was necessarily intended to be that way from the start--it's just what ends up happening if the campaign fails.
Ok, so failure aside, what are the dynamics of the trade? What kind of game is this?
In simplified terms, I'd describe a squeeze campaign where the short side doubles down as a modified dollar auction where the winning side also takes the losing side's bid money. In other words, at an aggregate level, it's winner take all, go hard or go home, with all the excitement of market action in the middle. Note that I said in aggregate and with market action in the middle, as that basically means even the winning side will have individuals who lose possibly everything if they get washed out before the end. As I mentioned in some comments where I urged people to consider taking profits if they needed the money, this is going to be a white-knuckle trade to the very end.

Power

For most of our lives, most of the time, the saying that 'information is power' and the closely related 'knowledge is power' are abstract, philosophical truisms that people say to try to sound cool and edgy. More tangible and relevant to our daily lives might be 'money is power', or, for the least fortunate, the threat and reality of physical force.
Today, for many in the GME trade, that previously abstract philosophical truism gained intense and urgent relevance. What is current SI? Can you trust numbers from S3? What about Ortex? Are there counterfeit shares in play? What is the significance of Failures to Deliver? Can the short side cover their position off the exchange? etc. etc.
Being in this situation, if nothing else, has lifted the veil for many people. The right information, in the right circumstances, is incredibly powerful. It outlines in stark contrast the power dynamics of information asymmetry.
If you want to exercise more agency in your future as a trader and investor, you have to make a habit of cultivating your critical thinking skills and ensuring you have diverse and often divergent sources of information. Do not let yourself be trapped in an information bubble where you can be easily manipulated. Most of all, try to avoid developing a siege mentality at all costs. If nothing else, in my opinion, it's critical for your long-term financial success.
I don't know the answer to those questions definitively, and my purpose in creating this account and posting is absolutely not to get people to listen and necessarily believe everything I write. In fact, it would make me happier if I see people use some of the tools, techniques, and concepts I've tried to introduce to challenge some of my thinking. Catching my mistakes helps me. Doing it in the open for all to read helps everyone.

Faith, Conviction, Calculated Risk

Many people trade and invest according to wildly divergent strategies.
Some people, including those that most Wall Street types consider to be 'responsible' investors, invest on blind faith. You put your capital is someone else's hands (hopefully a qualified fiduciary), and trust that they will do a good job. The only judgment you exercise really is in choosing the person(s) in which to place your faith. This is not entirely unlike what many WSBettors are doing with respect to DFV. I do this with my retirement accounts, though lately I've been considering transferring about half my retirement capital to a self-directed IRA.
Others trade on conviction. They have, for whatever reason, a very strong belief in an investment thesis that they are willing to put to the test by putting capital at risk, and are willing to lean into the thesis through unfavorable price action so long as no disconfirming evidence comes to light. I consider value investors to fall into this category.
Others are momentum traders and 'technical analysts', who are trying to read the market data to look for asymmetrical calculated risk opportunity. These opportunities need not necessarily be tied to any particular underlying fundamental investment thesis. All that matters is whether you win on a sufficiently frequent basis and carefully manage your downside risk.
I think it's healthy to try to gain an understanding of all three approaches. I personally also find it necessary to be careful if you find yourself switching between those approaches mid-trade. I.e., if you started in the GME trade on faith, it may be deeply disturbing if you find yourself in the no-man's land between faith and conviction, where you have learned enough to understand more of the risks in the trade, but not enough to understand the underlying investment thesis of how it could play out. I'm not saying you shouldn't try to make that transition--just try to maintain self awareness if you choose to do so to avoid making any rash decisions.

Swimming In The Deep

So, the consistent #1 question I always get: what happens next? My consistent answer, which I know frustrates everyone, is I don't know, and no one else does either.
One person in the comments made an astute observation that perhaps the truth, which some may find disturbing, is that our fate really lies in the hands of the whales on the long side rather than retail being in the driver's seat. This may very well be true. I would give it better than even odds at this point. In fact, even if retail collectively represents more shares in this trade, retail is not a well-organized, monolithic entity, and therefore would have more difficulty playing a decisive role at critical times.
Another question I got, which was a very good one to be asking, is what evidence do we have that there really are whales on the long side? For me, there have been critical actions over the past few days that I would have found to be highly unlikely to be achievable by retail investors, such as the sustained HFT duel into the close on Friday. That was very consistent, relatively well controlled, and sustained push on volume of 6-7mio shares traded in the $250 - $330/share price range. Oversimplified math would peg that at just shy of $2bn in capital flow. That is not retail--particularly with so many retail brokerages restricting trading at that time. The 17mio shares sold into the aftermarket action consistent with a squeeze (and Ortex reported reduction in short interest) is also definitely not retail. Others have pointed out massive action in the options today. Tons of block purchases in the millions of dollars and high 6 figures. Not retail.
All of that being said, does that really change very much? Even if you consider yourself to be part of a movement, and have genuine feelings of solidarity with your retail fellows (I do, which is why I'm writing these posts and holding that core position), in the end you are trading as an individual. This is a point that I have made repeatedly. In the end, you need to know yourself, know your trade, and have a plan. Your plan may conceivably be to follow someone else (I know many are following DFV to whatever the end may be), but in the end even that is still your plan as an individual.
If my thesis is correct we will continue to see lower trade volumes, and price grinding down to a floor of harder support, possibly even at the retail line of support (~$148/$150) I outlined in a prior post. There may also be some price dislocation tomorrow depending on options contract T+2 settlement impact. I don't know enough about what to expect there. If the squeeze is to happen, unless RH lifting restrictions or people transferring their accounts causes a surge of retail momentum, it will happen after that type of price movement continues for a while (maybe days, maybe longer), until sufficient liquid float has been locked up.
Right now options action is heavily weighted to puts, so any market maker hedging activity will put more pressure on price.
If the squeeze fails to happen there won't be a siren, ringing of a bell, or anything like that. It might happen gradually and non-obviously until suddenly, as only the market seems to be able to do, it becomes obvious that whoever's still there has been left holding the bag. Hopefully this isn't the case, but if it is I'll be right there with what at that point may only buy me a razor scooter rather than a car lol.
If it succeeds, it should be fairly obvious. Just don't forget to ring the register!
Either way, this is market history in the making. As I said in a previous comment, when you ride the rocket, it's definitely not going to be smooth--but it might just be awesome.
Apologies for the lengthy post again. Good luck in the market!
submitted by jn_ku to u/jn_ku [link] [comments]

I clicked the "Random" button while looking at XKCD #2370, and I ended up at XKCD #1961

Both comics use the same panel layout, same characters, and discuss similar topics.
https://xkcd.com/1961/
https://xkcd.com/2370/
What are the odds?
submitted by ColsonThePCmechanic to xkcd [link] [comments]

How Mortar Accuracy Works, Mortar Mechanics, Shell Effects & Usage Tips and Safe Antigrain Storage

TLDR at bottom. Version 1.2.2753

Forced Miss Radius, or why you never hit your target.

This is what you see when your mortar targets something.
​
This is what your mortar sees when targeting something. It is EQUALLY LIKELY to hit ANY of these hundreds of tiles.
Standard ranged weapons make checks based on the weapon's accuracy, the shooter, and other things such as cover to see if their attack hits the target, and if that check passes the projectile tries to home in on the target. Mortars are NOT standard, and don't care about ANY of the above.
Despite being a structure like turrets, mortars follow the same rules as grenades and are Forced Miss Radius (FMR) weapons, which essentially is a fancy way of saying 'AoE'. All FMR weapons only care about two things: the target square and the weapon's miss radius.
The way the Forced Miss Radius works is pretty simple: in effect, it means intentionally failing the accuracy check. And to explain this, I'm going to use grenades.
​
Miss Radius and Direct Hit Chance are all that matter here.
When thrown, grenades don't hit a square as much as they hit an 'area'. The grenade itself can land in anywhere around the target location, up to 1.9 squares away (the miss radius). Effectively, they have a 2 square radius around where you're trying to hit. There are 9 highlighted tiles and those are all the tiles the grenade can land on, and that's how the direct hit chance of 11% is calculated. The odds of hitting the middle are just 1/9 because nothing makes it more or less likely to hit the targeted square. The shooter doesn't matter, it's all about random chance. And despite not showing you this visually, mortars work the exact same way.
​
\"0.19% hit chance????\"
Mortars have a 13 tile miss radius around the target, which is about equal to the range of a Rimworld shotgun. What your mortar saw up above is every possible square within the miss radius, which ends up being 517 tiles. The direct hit chance, or chance to hit Nihlus' tile, is literally just 1/517, which ends up being 0.19342%. This is why mortars NEVER seem to hit anywhere near the actual target; the odds of selecting a tile anywhere near the center is incredibly low. Mortar material does nothing to change this.

Mortar Mechanics and Variants

All mortars take 28 seconds to arm a shot. After the mortar is armed, it takes 4 seconds to fire the shot, after which the pawn will go and get another shell to fire again. Once the mortar is reloaded, the process repeats. Pawns that are Incapable of Violence cannot man mortars.
While there are five mortar variants, the only real differences are flammability and HP. Material does impact market price, work cost, and beauty, but the work to build a mortar is pretty negligble to begin with and the other values have no combat utility.
While all mortars only have a .19% chance to hit the center tile, this is not the effective accuracy of the mortar shell because mortars shells (just like grenades) have an AoE effect with a varying radius depending on what shell you use.

Mortar Shells

​
Area of Effect for all 6 Mortar Shells (mortar target radius included for reference) for center hit.
All shells have a radius on their effect, and as a result there's a massive difference in consistency between them all. Each ring represents the radius for a shell's effect if the mortar aimed at the center, and the shell of the respective type landing on any of those squares also hits the center (so if a firefoam shell landed on any gold squares it would also hit the center tile with the AoE), meaning their odds to hit vary from exceedingly unlikely to guaranteed barring structures / terrain blocking the blast. Here's the stats for all the shell variants:

HE

HE / High Explosive shells are pretty straightforward: there's a big explosion in a 3-tile radius around the hit square (or a 5x5 centered on the hit square, if that's easier to visualize). They're also the shell 99% of people use when they try to use mortars to take something out and then complain about mortars being bad.
The issue with HE shells is that multiple things are subpar. Only 25 tiles of the total 517 will actually impact the center, meaning each shell only has a 4.8356% chance to hit. Even on larger structures (enemy mortars, ship parts) the effective likelihood of hitting is only going to be about a 1/20, and that's for a single hit. Even on a direct hit, only 200 damage is done to a structure, meaning you need 6 hits to actually destroy a ship part. Even an Auto Mortar takes two (though a regular steel mortar and all mech cluster turrets only need a single hit).
In terms of combat, a moving target means even poorer accuracy and even unarmored pawns will generally tank a single hit without being downed / dying immediately, to say nothing of the natural tankiness of mechs and insectoids.
The final issue is they're just not cost-efficient. If your problem takes 40 shells, that's 1k steel and 600 chemfuel. 10 large excellent steel sculptures and that 600 chemfuel is going to be worth about 5,800 silver. Sending all of that by pod is enough to generate +76 relations, which means you could immediately hit ally with a civil outlander group and just call in aid OR straight up make any non-pirate faction neutral. Even just spending all that on gold at full value no discount gets you about 6.214 honor worth of gold, which is only about 2000 silver off from buying an aerodrone salvo and having SIX 6-square radius shells falling right on your target, which is about twice as many times you'd expect to hit your target if you just fired 60 shells and with twice the radius / 4.36x the exploded tiles per shot. Buying that much is actually cheaper than 60 shells, too...
That all being said, they're the only real consistent way to safely deal damage across the entire map. When you've hit endgame, have a dozen or two mortars, and the cost isn't a big deal, nothing can really do the same job of chipping away a couple dozen pawns consistently each raid regardless of what faction they are and where they're coming from as firing a dozen or two shells at a time.

Incendiary

Incendiary shells "explode" in a small 3-tile radius that inflicts small burns on anyone hit and and spreads several (number seems to vary) burning chemfuel puddles around the impact site as well as inflicting a very small amount of structure damage if the target was a wall (and lighting several segments on fire if said walled area is flammable). Said puddles burn for several seconds and spread fires. While they have the same abysmal 3-tile radius as HE shells and on paper only have a ~5% chance to hit, fire mechanics as a whole help out tremendously with consistency here and make them excellent area denial.
Fire can spread to any flammable material within a 3 square radius, effectively doubling the radius an incendiary shell has an effect on and meaning on average a significantly higher likelihood of catching something important on fire and causing massive spread.
Incendiary shells are phenomenal for sieges because fire will destroy any mortars being built almost instantly, PERMANENTLY taking them out. This doesn't even need a direct hit to the mortars being worked on: hits to supplies or any single raider themselves seem to aggro the raid into attacking, immediately abandoning any mortars being built and deconstructing them. This turns a dicey situation into a regular raid plus several hundred free steel and whatever else doesn't burn before you clean up. Do note that mechs and all mech cluster turrets & buildings are fireproof, though. Unless you specifically want to burn the steel walls and barricades on a cluster, avoid using incendiary shells there.

Firefoam

Firefoam shells literally behave as a launched firefoam popper. However, they're also significantly cheaper, only costing 35 steel per shell, compared to the 75 steel / 1 component that a popper costs.
Contrary to the wiki, firefoam doesn't slow pawns as of 1.2.2753. nor does the explosion appear to disable shields. Mechanically it's pretty basic, it acts much like filth (and doesn't disappear unless cleaned / rain washes it away) but prevents fire from being on the tiles that it's on (though pawns themselves can still catch fire. This doesn't make you immune to inferno cannons!). As an explosion, it will also extinguish any structures nearby. Note that a structure being on or adjacent to firefoam doesn't matter; your walls and table CAN catch fire again despite firefoam being out. This means it can slow down spread, but can't stop walls or furniture from being reignited. This WILL prevent trees and grasses from igniting, though.
Despite a mortar-fired firefoam shell explosion actually being smaller than a popped firefoam popper (which has an effect radius of 14, compared to something like 6 for the mortar projectile), the shells themselves (not loaded) have an explosion size equal to a firefoam popper. Since fire will ignite them all the same, they can actually be used as a cheaper and beauty-neutral way to fireproof your home and stockpiles compared to poppers. That being said, an 85 tile coverage on the mortar shell means you have a 16.44% chance of foaming what you want to, which isn't bad since odds are any shot will significantly impede / slow down a raging fire.

Smoke

Smoke shells make a massive cloud of smoke appear over the target area. Smoke lasts only about 20 seconds but does two important things: shooting through it reduces accuracy by 70% and turrets will not fire if any amount of smoke is between them and their target. A wild bullet is still dangerous and can be intercepted by friendlies even if it "misses", however.
Smoke is particularly amazing for mech clusters and for making safe retreats. Nothing in the game generates a smoke cloud this large, and 161 tiles of coverage means you have about a 1/3 (31.14%) of impacting the center tile, which isn't even necessary for smoke to do its job. One shot between you and the turrets is all you need to get a smoke launcher pawn safely in to lock a cluster down, lob a few grenades, or bait out mechs, taking out a big problem for only 35 steel.

EMP

EMP shells are pretty self explanatory: they make a massive EMP blast centered on the hit tile. A titanic area coverage of 241 tiles gives a ~46.6% chance of hitting the target square, or about a 71.5% chance of hitting the target with two shells.
EMP mechanics are simple but varied: everything remotely electronic gets shorted out, but each object / unit have their own mechanics with how they deal with it and are stunned with different durations. Here's the crash course:
EMP shells are incredibly niche because they're only really usable for mechanoid attacks, but they're also incredibly good at countering them. If you struggle with mechs, especially clusters, give them a try.

Antigrain

Here's the nuke. Antigrain warheads have an explosion radius two tiles longer than the actual miss radius of a mortar, meaning they are guaranteed to damage the targeted tile unless walls get in the way of the blast. Antigrain can destroy walls, but the blast won't travel past them.
Antigrain will destroy just about anything. Adjacent structures will take about 2100 damage, destroying everything and everyone in the game bar compacted plasteel and uranium ore. Ship parts and EMI Dynamos (which don't actually power down mortars despite EMP hits disabling them) are destroyed outright if the warhead strikes within 9 tiles of the ship part (79.3% chance), every other condition-causer in the game will be destroyed regardless.
Being hit will atomize anyone, and even being on the fringe is almost certainly a death, but it's not guaranteed. Tough pawns also have a much better chance of surviving since they take half damage. It's almost a guaranteed down on everything that survives though, which means virtually all hostile NPCs bar the tanky centipede in the radius will die.
Their purpose and value is obvious, so let's talk about something else: storage tricks. A poorly-stored antigrain firing off can end a game, so here's a tip and two ways to keep your warhead safe but easily accessible:

Conclusion

Mortars are extremely expensive and have poor results when people try to use them like a win button to circumvent fighting with their pawns (without using antigrains, which are for doing exactly that). They are very effective when they're used as a support tool for your combat squad to make it easier for THEM to go out and fight, as long as you're careful and don't EMP the wrong colonist.
Despite pawns incapable of violence no longer being able to use them, pawns without combat skills still have a way to make encounters much safer for your squads with a well-placed smoke, incendiary, or EMP. Give them a try, especially firefoam shells as a substitute for poppers!
TLDR: 0.19% chance to hit target tile, shell variants impact effective accuracy.
Avoid HE Shells, the rest have niches. Smoke and EMP in particular are incredible for dismantling mech clusters.
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Analysis of My Tennis Results Over the Last Two Years and How Betting Lines as Early as Possible More than Doubled my Returns

Betting Early and Price Shopping
 
This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be
 
I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters
 
Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.
  • When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
  • When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets
When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice
 
  • Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
  • Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
  • If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.
Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!
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Popheads Album of the Year 2020 #18: BLACKPINK - THE ALBUM

Artist: BLACKPINK
Album: THE ALBUM
Label: YG Entertainment / Interscope
Tracklist and Lyrics: Genius Page
Release date: October 2, 2020
popheads [FRESH] thread: Here
Listen: Apple Music | Spotify

THE PRELUDE

My first memory of Blackpink was around the summer of 2017 when someone in the Popheads Plug.dj room played “As If It’s Your Last”. That song was stuck in my head ever since I first heard it. It had everything I wanted from a K-pop song at that time - a fire rap verse, beautiful vocals, an upbeat production that had an addictive pop bubblegum melody in the chorus. The gorgeous music video definitely played a huge factor on the song’s memorability.
A few months later, I was watching Justice League with my relatives when Barry Allen aka The Flash arrives at his Flash secret den, only to be surprised to find Bruce Wayne aka Batman waiting for him. Why am I mentioning this scene? Behind Batfleck (a portmanteau of Batman and Ben Affleck) is the TV screen of the “As If It’s Your Last” music video and the song can be heard for a few seconds before fading into focus on the dialogue between Batman and The Flash. Being in a Southeastern Country where the influence of the Hallyu wave is huge since the early 2000s, everyone in the theater were pleasantly surprised by the fact that a K-pop song, let alone a song from a group with only 5 songs at that time, was featured in a Hollywood superhero movie. At that moment, I had a huge feeling that the song being featured in Justice League will increase the presence of K-pop in the West to the point that a K-pop song actually charts in Billboard Hot 100 soon and BLACKPINK is going to be one of those groups.
To my surprise, I was actually right.
BTS and Blackpink are the most popular K-pop groups right now thanks to their success in the West, which was the place that is quite hesitant to accept K-pop as a dominant force in pop culture despite its popularity outside the West, especially in Asia. The groups’ appearances in the Billboard Hot 100 and UK Singles Charts definitely made Western labels realize that K-pop is a dominant force globally.
As part of the Popheads Album of the Year 2020 series, I take a look at Blackpink's first full album appropriately titled “The Album''. Their debut full album was highly anticipated as it took four years since their debut in 2016 to finally make this happen. With this post, I deconstruct Blackpink’s history and their legacy, how the tracks fared as an album, and why “The Album” deserves its place as the “Popheads’ Album of the Year”.

PART 1. THE GROUP

When Blackpink made their debut on August 8, 2016, the anticipation was high as they were YG Entertainment’s second girl group after 2NE1. The high anticipation is also because the group was supposed to debut in 2012 after YG’s founder and now-former CEO Yang Hyun-suk teased a possibility of a second girl group back in 2011.
The name for YG’s second girl group wasn’t even called Blackpink in the first place as the group was initially named “Pink Punk”. “Pink Punk” was supposed to be YG’s answer to SM Entertainment’s Girls Generation (SNSD) as the initial number of members were supposed to match the number of members of SNSD, which is nine members. YG even uploaded videos of some trainees who were likely to be members of Pink Punk to build public interest before the group’s supposed to debut.
And then, Pink Punk never happened. Yang Hyun-suk’s indecisive, premature decisions during his time as CEO of YG is the reason why he earned so much infamy within the K-pop community, along with other things. But let’s not delve into that.
Between 2011 and 2016, it was clear that this second girl group went through drastic changes. The line-up of members changed from nine to seven, then to five, to just four. Besides Pink Punk, the group had other possible names such as “Baby Monster” and “Magnum”. I honestly wonder what kind of crack did the people in YG Entertainment smoke to think that these are legitimately good names for their second girl group. Did they get that crack from Senguri? We may never know.
Blackpink’s debut was an instant success as they released their debut double singles “Whistle” and “Boombayah”, compiled as a single album “Square One”. “Whistle” and “Boombayah” debuted at #1 and #7 at South Korean Gaon Digital Charts respectively. The group also became the fastest girl group to earn a win in a Korean music show as Inkigayo gave the group a trophy win for “Whistle”. Looking back, the group said that debuting with “Whistle” as their first single was risky at that time due to it having a “weird country vibe” and its minimal production, which led many people at YG against its release.
They followed “Square One” with the next single album “Square Two” with singles “Playing with Fire” and “Stay”, which both aim to show Blackpink’s softer side, compared to the chaotic, party-vibe of “Square One”.
While most K-pop groups usually have at least two to three comebacks per year, it seems like Blackpink only has one comeback per year based on the release pattern of when the group has their comebacks.
On June 2, 2017, they released their comeback standalone single “As If It’s Your Last”. The following year, they finally released their first mini-album (which is basically an EP) “Squared Up” on June 15, 2018. “DDU-DU DDU-DU”, the mini-album’s title single (K-pop equivalent to lead single) propelled Blackpink to global popularity especially in the West as the single debuted at #55 and #78 in the Billboard Hot 100 and the UK Singles Chart respectively. This marks their first appearance in these charts. Additionally, the song’s music video is currently the second most-viewed K-pop music video with 1.4 billion viewers, being only behind Gangnam Style by former fellow YG artist Psy with 3.9 billion viewers.
In 2019, Blackpink released their second mini-album “Kill This Love” on April 4. The release of the mini-album was significant as it’s the group’s first release under Interscope Records, which distributes their music and handles their promotions in countries outside Asia. The titular track peaked at #41 on Billboard Hot 100 and #33 on the UK Singles Chart. This era is best remembered for the group’s promotions in the West as a result of their increasing popularity, specifically their iconic Coachella appearance that made them the first K-pop girl group to perform in the festival. Their Coachella gig highlighted the group’s stage presence and high energy as performers, backed with a live band that complimented the group’s electronic-style music. It’s Blackpink like we never saw before and it’s definitely a refreshing contrast to their more calculated promotions in their home country of South Korea.

PART 2. THE MEMBERS

A huge part of Blackpink’s appeal are the members. Their beauty and charismatic personalities are some of the reasons why the group has a huge fanbase of Blinks, which is the fandom name of the group. Obviously, K-pop idols are trained to be charismatic. But there is something about the dynamic of the members that feel unmatched and they harmonize well together as a group.
It’s sort of a relief that YG didn’t stick to their plan of having a nine-member girl group. During training, Jennie said that the female trainees are shuffled to different groups every two months and there would be “little fights” on who gets assigned to positions in the group such as vocals, rapping, and dancing. When grouped with Lisa, Jisoo, and Rosé, Jennie said it was already clear on who gets the parts.
Each member of the group carries the whole group in their own different ways. They all have different backgrounds, different motivations on why they wanted to become idols and trainees under YG, and different skills that make Blackpink as a whole.
I will be describing the members in the order they were revealed before their debut.

Jennie

Jennie Kim was the first member to be revealed as part of Blackpink on June 1, 2016. She is the group’s assigned main rapper and lead vocalist.
Jennie was born as an only child to wealthy parents on January 16, 1996, in Seoul, South Korea. Jennie moved to Auckland at the age of eight after she was asked by her mother if she liked the place during their visit there. Jennie seemed to adjust her life well in New Zealand and she was featured in a documentary titled “English, Must Change to Survive” for South Korean broadcaster MBC about her experience as a Korean kid living in a foreign land.
Jennie moved back to Seoul in 2010 after not being interested in taking up law in the United States, which was suggested by her mother who eventually supported her daughter’s decision. While Jennie didn’t have any formal musical background growing up, she was interested in K-pop during her stay in New Zealand. She auditioned for YG Entertainment as a vocalist, in which she performed “Take a Bow” by Rihanna. While Jennie was accepted as a trainee under YG, the judges advised her to train for the role of a rapper as she is the only trainee who can speak English.
A trainee for five years, Jennie was one of the most popular trainees in YG and has already gained recognition before her eventual debut as a Blackpink member. YG uploaded videos of Jennie covering “Strange Clouds" by B.o.B. featuring Lil Wayne and “Lotus Flower Bomb” by Wale while she was a trainee. She also appeared as a featured artist for Senguri’s “GG Be” and G-Dragon’s “Black” in their respective solo albums, which she performed with the latter in Inkigayo making it her stage debut Because of her early popularity, Jennie was highly speculated to be part of the original line-up of Pink Punk before the idea was scrapped.
After the release of “Square Up”, Jennie became the first member of the group to debut as a soloist. She released her debut solo single aptly titled “Solo” on November 12, 2018. The music video is the most-viewed music video by a Korean female solo artist with 600 million views on YouTube.
Just recently, she launched her own YouTube channel on her 26th birthday where she intends to create vlogs about her everyday life. Her first vlog served as an introduction to her channel which included a cover of Tangled’s “When Will My Life Begin?” by Mandy Moore. The vlog has already gotten 10.9 million views two days after its release.

Lisa

Lalisa Manoban, known by her stage name Lisa, was revealed as the second member of Blackpink on June 8, 2016. Lisa is the assigned main dancer, lead rapper, and sub vocalist of the group. She is also the “maknae” of the group, meaning she is the youngest member of the group, as well as the only non-Korean member in the group.
Lisa’s birth name is actually different as she was born under the name “Pranpriya” before legally changing to Lalisa. She was born in Thailand on March 27, 1997.
Lisa took dance lessons at four years old and often competed in dance competitions. She was part of the Thai dance crew “We Zaa Cool'' with childhood friend and fellow K-pop idol BamBam from GOT7. She also competed in a singing competition where she represented her school, ending up as a runner-up.
Inspired by her idols and eventual YG labelmates BIGBANG and 2NE1, Lisa had her eyes on the K-pop industry. She auditioned for YG Entertainment when the agency visited Thailand. Out of the 4,000 Thai applicants, she was the only one accepted to be a trainee under YG. Lisa began her 5-year trainee journey in 2011 as she is YG’s first foreign trainee. Like Jennie, she was speculated to be part of the original line-up of “Pink Punk”. Her highly impressive skills as a dancer have always led her to be assigned as the main dancer in different groups that she designs most of the choreography herself. While still training, YG released a video of 16-year-old Lisa performing “Turn Up The Music”, albeit she was nameless in the video.
Lisa is the group’s most popular member as she is the most followed member on Instagram with 45.2 million followers. Her widely-shared dance performance of “Swalla” in the Blackpink In Your Area tour and the “Did It Work?” memes that surrounded her legs contributed to her worldwide popularity.
In 2020, Lisa released a limited edition photobook on her birthday aptly titled “0327”, which consisted of photos she took with her film camera that included some shots of her fellow members.
Outside of her Blackpink duties, Lisa is a dance mentor of the Chinese survival show “Youth With You”. She was dubbed as “Mentor Lisa” by Blinks as her strict mentoring style in the show surprised everyone since it was the opposite of her shy personality. Her fellow members have teased Lisa over her strict mentoring style.

Jisoo

Kim Ji-soo, more commonly known by her first name, was revealed as the third member of Blackpink on June 15, 2016. She is the group’s lead vocalist and “visual” member, meaning she is the most attractive member according to Korean beauty standards. She is also the eldest member of the group, making her the “eonie” of the group.
Jisoo was born on January 3, 1995, in South Korea and she grew up with a close, extended family. Despite being a visual member, Jisoo was bullied as a kid about her appearance by her relatives who often called her a monkey.
Being an idol was not on Jisoo’s radar growing up. She wanted to involve herself in the arts as she considered wanting to become an actress, a painter, or a writer. She developed her acting skills by joining a drama club during her time as a student.
Despite not knowing about YG when she auditioned, Jisoo was accepted as a trainee and began her 5-year trainee journey. Like Jennie and Lisa, Jisoo was speculated to be part of the original line-up of Pink Punk. Before her debut, she made appearances in commercials for Samsonite, LG, and Nikon.
There is always one member in a K-pop group that would likely become actors later in their careers and Jisoo is one of them. It isn’t surprising as she has openly shown her interest in becoming an actress and the members even remarked that she would win an Oscar for her “acting face” alone. Before her debut, she had a cameo appearance in an episode of the KBS show “The Producers” with labelmates Dara of 2NE1. Now a K-pop idol, Jisoo appeared in a role in tvN’s fantasy-drama “Arthdal Chronicles” where she played her first fictional character. Jisoo will be starring in an upcoming JTBC drama “Snowdrop” that is slated to premiere later this year.

Rosé

Park Chae-young, more commonly known as Rosé, is the fourth and last member to be revealed as part of Blackpink on June 22, 2016. She is the assigned main vocalist and lead dancer in the group.
Rosé’s English name is Roséanne Park as she was born outside Korea and grew up living overseas. She was born on February 11, 1997, in Auckland, New Zealand. Her family moved to Melbourne, Australia when she was eight years old.
While Lisa’s musical background is more on dancing, Rosé’s musical background is more on singing as she grew up singing in a choir and has played the guitar often in school. When YG went to Australia to look for potential trainees, she was advised by her father to try auditioning. After being accepted as a YG trainee, she had to drop out of school and move to Seoul within two months. Rosé said it was difficult to be separated from her family during training. Despite feeling homesick, she was determined to become a K-pop idol.
Rosé had no formal experience with dancing, which caught her off-guard when she first trained. She definitely had a lot of time to hone her dancing skills that she eventually became the lead singer in the group. Before her debut, Rosé was a featured artist in G-Dragon’s song “Without You” in 2012.
Given her position as the main vocalist, Blinks have been anticipating her solo debut. She has released covers of Halsey’s “Eyes Open” and Nat King Cole’s “The Christmas Song”, which really showcased her unique vocals. During the COVID-19 pandemic, she covered a series of songs in a jam session that was live-streamed on her Instagram page. Rosé will finally make her debut as a soloist early this year and teasers are expected to pop-up as reports say that she finished filming the music video of her solo debut. Given YG’s well-recorded unreliably on their commitments, we could only hope this would finally push through.
While I have described every member of Blackpink, there’s one more person that needs to be mentioned as he plays a crucial factor in Blackpink’s success.

Teddy Park

Teddy Park is a former member of YG’s boy group “1TYM” and now an in-house producer for YG Entertainment. He wrote and produced many iconic tracks for BIGBANG and 2NE1 such as Fantastic Baby and I Am The Best respectively.
Teddy produced the majority of Blackpink’s discography and has received songwriting credits of Blackpink’s collaborations with Dua Lipa (Kiss and Make Up) and Lady Gaga (Sour Candy). According to the album’s production credits, he is credited as the album producer and creative director for the group.

PART 3. THE ERA

When YG announced on May 4, 2020, that Blackpink finished recording their first full album and will shoot a music video for their pre-single later that month, the news was met with cautious optimism. YG has a track record of promising things that didn’t come to fruition so this announcement was understandably taken with a grain of salt.
It’s worth pointing out that the group was previously featured on “Sour Candy” by Lady Gaga as a promo single for her album “Chromatica”, which indicates that Blackpink might be coming out with their new material. Also, Interscope is capitalizing on the increasing popularity of K-pop in the West by investing Blackpink in their roster. With this, YG has to commit to its schedule. And so they did by dropping a teaser poster a month later that revealed that the pre-release single will drop on June 26.
The pre-release single would later turn out to be called “How You Like That?”, which was met with huge anticipation as teaser posters and videos of the members were revealed until its release. The single became an instant success the moment it dropped as the music video’s premiere was watched by 1.66 million simultaneous viewers on YouTube, making it the highest-rated YouTube Premiere. It was also the fastest music video to hit 100 million viewers in just 32 hours before BTS’ “Dynamite” took over the title two months later, beating Blackpink with 24 hours The song itself was a hit in the charts. It debuted at #32 on Billboard Hot 100 and #20 on the UK Singles Charts.
Blackpink then teased the release of their second pre-release single featuring an unnamed artist on July 23 that will be released a month later. It was widely speculated that Ariana Grande is the unnamed artist that the hashtag “#AriPink” trended on Twitter. It was later revealed that Grande is actually one of the songwriters of the single and that Selena Gomez is the actual unnamed artist on August 11. The title would later be revealed as “Ice Cream” on August 22. The single’s music video, in which the scenes had to be shot separately in South Korea and Los Angeles due to the COVID-19 pandemic, gathered 79.08 million viewers in 24 hours. The single is currently Blackpink’s highest-peaking single on Billboard Hot 100, debuting at #13.
Throughout the hype of Ice Cream, YG announced on July 28 that Blackpink will FINALLY release their first full album titled “The Album” on October 2. The name was met with mixed reactions, calling it “lazy”. However, Rosé said that they have worked on the album for so long that simply calling it “The Album” is the best way to describe their project because it’s so straightforward - “Blackpink: The Album”.
Accompanying the album’s release on October 2 is the release of the album’s title track “Lovesick Girls”, which became the sixth biggest 24-hour music video debut at 61.4 million viewers. While the song peaked at #59 on Billboard Hot 100, the new Billboard Global 200 showed that the song debuted and peaked at #2, with the song topping the separate Global Chart that excluded the US.
In-between the releases of the singles was Blackpink’s new reality TV show on YouTube called “Blackpink: 24/365”, which showcased various activities that the members participated in, such as pottery making and kart racing, as well as revealing behind the scenes footage of their music videos. The 16-episode reality series served as a way to promote the group and the album’s release. The series began on June 13 with a prologue until it aired its finale on October 24. It was supposed to have one more episode that was scheduled on October 31 before being pulled off after Chinese netizens were concerned over a clip of the episode’s teaser that showed the members touching a baby panda without gloves and masks during the pandemic.
To cap off the era, a Netflix documentary film about the group was made under the title, “Blackpink: Light Up the Sky”, which documented Blackpink’s first four years as a group featuring behind the scenes videos and footage during their training days. It also showed the friendship between the members and their producer Teddy, their retrospective look on their training days, as well as their struggles of keeping up the busy lifestyle as K-pop idols. The documentary film also showed the girls recording the songs for The Album, as well as Rosé preparing for her long-anticipated solo debut. The documentary received positive reviews, which critics liked the documentary for showing the members’ work ethic and their fun personalities.

PART 4. THE TRACKS

“The Album” is a pop album that has influences of hip-hop, R&B, and EDM, all of which compose Blackpink’s musical signature since their debut. “The Album” is composed of 8 tracks (including the three singles) with a length of 24 minutes and 26 seconds. This is somehow normal for a K-pop mini-album, but too short for a full-album. In comparison, Twice’s second full-album “Eyes wide open” has 13-tracks with a length of 43 minutes and 29 seconds.
As an eight-track album, it’s an equal mix of English and Korean songs as Blackpink attempts to market themselves in the West. All of these songs were recorded in The Black Label in South Korea, with some of the album’s mixing and additional input by producers made remotely due to the pandemic.
Teddy serves as the album’s main producer, along with YG’s in-house songwriters and producers Danny Chung, R.Tee, 24, Løren, Vince, and Future Bounce. Frequent Blackpink songwriter Bekah Boom also worked on the lyrics of “The Album”. New songwriters and producers include Victoria Monét, Tommy Brown, Steven Franks, Ariana Grande, Ryan Tedder, Melanie Fontana, Torae Carr, Jonathan Descartes, Brian Lee, Leah Haywood, David Guetta, Tushar Apte, Rob Grimaldi, Chloe George, and Steph Jones.
The featured artists in “The Album”, Selena Gomez and Cardi B, are also credited as songwriters in their respective tracks “Ice Cream” and “Bet You Wanna”. Additionally, Jennie and Jisoo received their first songwriting credits ever with “Lovesick Girls”.
For this section on the post, I will give my thoughts on each track. I will also include the line distribution statistics based on random_k’s lyric distribution videos (with the exception of Love to Hate Me which I will base on HEXA6ON’s lyric distribution video of the song) and input my thoughts on the distribution as well.

1. How You Like That?

We begin “The Album” with the first pre-release single. “How You Like That?” is an appropriate opener to the album as it’s your typical Blackpink clap-back anthem. The best way to describe my mood on this song is the way AJay reacted to the song, in which she said “This is how you open the album”.
Of course, many have criticized this song for being too familiar with the previous singles “DU-DDU-DDU-DU” and “Kill This Love” and I do agree that this song is definitely a rethread of these songs. However, I will disagree that this song didn’t serve anything new to the table. For me, “How You Like That?” basically re-defined Blackpink’s sound that complements the group’s pop and hip-hop tendencies that the previous singles haven’t reached before.
It feels redundant to talk about Blackpink’s music videos because it always expected that their music videos would always serve BUDGET regardless of the quality of the actual song. Like, look at the budget! And they shot this music video during a pandemic!

Lyric Distribution Video

  • Lisa: 37.12 seconds | 29.51%
  • Jennie: 33.89 seconds | 26.93%
  • Rosé: 31.00 seconds | 24.64%
  • Jisoo: 23.82 seconds | 18.93%
While the line distribution is not totally equal as Jisoo is missing out on ten seconds compared to other members, I feel like the line distribution is justified. You can definitely hear each member contributing their own lines in the song. Lisa being the member with the most lines also makes sense as she basically she slayed the entire second verse

2. Ice Cream (with Selena Gomez)

When Normani released “Motivation” as a single, you can definitely tell that Ariana could’ve sang this song since she is credited as a songwriter. It has the Grande fingerprints all over it. Yet, with Normani’s strong vocals that complemented the 2000s-inspired production, she owned this song with ease. My expectations for an Ariana-penned Blackpink track are quite high based on my feelings on “Motivation” alone and Selena Gomez’s contribution as the co-artist of the song propelled that higher. And oh boy, I wish I wasn’t this excited.
The most disappointing thing about Ice Cream is that it felt like Blackpink attempting to sing an Ariana reject with no sense of originality. I know it’s ironic to say this since Blackpink is basically “2NE1 Part 2” for longtime YG fans, but this song lacked that distinct Blackpink sound that made me a Blink in the first place. It’s so uninspiring and sometimes jarring to hear, even with multiple listens.
Also, the sexual overtones in the lyrics are just too fucking awkward for Blackpink to sing. With their music video that had a cute concept, this is sort of uncomfortable to go through with the sexual undertones in mind. This is the same group that had them bragging how good their bodies look in “Boombayah” and they showed their “sexier side” way better in their cover of Wonder Girls’ “So Hot”.
The only saving grace of this song, which was the reason why I could barely tolerate “Ice Cream”, is Lisa’s rap verse. I could imagine Jennie slaying if she had her own rap verse too. Honestly, Selena would have owned this song by herself without the autotune. But it’s nice to hear Selena in an upbeat song like this in a while.

Lyric Distrbution Video

  • Lisa: 38.59 seconds | 27.08%
  • Selena Gomez: 36.02 seconds | 25.40%
  • Jennie: 29.07 seconds | 20.40%
  • Jisoo: 22.21 seconds | 15.59%
  • Rosé: 16.44 seconds | 11.54%
Immediately, I can’t help but think about how Jisoo got only two English lines in the song despite having more seconds than Rosé. Half of Jisoo’s lines are just “Ice cream chillin chillin”. Ugh. I know Jisoo is not a fluent English speaker but many K-pop idols who are not English speakers can sing the language well with enough practice. Thankfully, Jisoo had more English lines in other songs, but I’ll tackle that a bit later in this post.
I am honestly surprised Selena had more lines in the song than I thought because I feel like I heard more of Jennie and Rosé, which funny enough I thought Rosé had more lines.
This is definitely not the worst line distribution I have seen. It’s just that Jisoo could have sung more lines.

3. Pretty Savage

Remember the distinct Blackpink signature sound that made me a Blink in the first place? Now, this is what I am talking about.
This is the quintessential Blackpink sound that I have been waiting for since Kill This Love. I would’ve imagined that Pretty Savage as a pre-release single would've fared better than “How You Like That?” but somehow, I am sort of glad it didn’t. This is the song that Blinks needed to hear as antis have constantly dismissed Blackpink as “influencers with no talent” in response to their constant lengthy hiatuses.
Of course, with this kind of song, it’s already expected Lisa would definitely slay this song. It's nice to hear Jennie rap again after she wasn’t given those parts in the pre-release singles. The way she rapped “F bois, not my bois' ' is just too damn iconic. However, the star of the song is Jisoo who has the second verse to herself and her talking rap flow surprisingly works here. The best part is definitely her saying “Blackpink in Your Area” after being the only member not to say the iconic catchphrase for years. And of course, Rosé’s vocals in the bridge are just as amazing.
Pretty Savage is definitely one of my top favorites in “The Album”. Let’s just forget the messy choreography though.

Lyric Distrubution Video

  • Lisa: 40.69 seconds | 30.21%
  • Jennie: 34.42 seconds | 25.40%
  • Rosé: 31.86 seconds | 23.65%
  • Jisoo: 27.72 seconds | 20.58%
This is definitely one of the best lyric distributions of Blackpink so far. While Lisa exceeded ten seconds, every member can be heard equally with their outstanding lines given to them.

4. Bet You Wanna (feat. Cardi B)

Coming off from the success and controversy surrounding WAP, Cardi B and Blackpink is an odd, yet exciting collaboration. I can’t imagine any of the members taking the second verse other than Cardi. It would have been nice to hear the “supposed” explicit lyrics she had to tone down for obvious reasons. If she was allowed to swear, she would’ve sung “I bet if you make me wet, I’ll still be fire”, which plays in my head now when I hear the tone-downed version lyric (“I bet if you make me sweat, I’ll still be fire”).
Bet You Wanna could’ve been the next single after Lovesick Girls to capitalize on Cardi’s success from WAP. The entire production is so chill, yet so catchy which makes sense considering Ryan Tedder and Tommy Brown’s involvement. The song is completely in English so that this could’ve been a Top 10 hit with the right push. Unfortunately, the promotional cycle for “The Album” ended so I guess this is going to remain as a fan-favorite track for many Blinks and not a huge hit outside the fandom.

Lyric Distribution Video

  • Jennie: 40.75 seconds | 28.58%
  • Rosé: 38.28 seconds | 26.86%
  • Jisoo: 26.78 seconds | 18.79%
  • Cardi B: 25.19 seconds | 17.67%
  • Lisa: 11.55 seconds | 8.10%
Not a perfect lyric distribution, but not too bad either. Each member can be heard just fine and Cardi didn’t dominate the song too much, which is fair since she is a featured artist. Lisa could’ve gotten a bit more lines, but this is also fine considering she has topped the lyric distribution in the previous songs.

5. Lovesick Girls

Considering that Blackpink’s single releases have always been upbeat clap-back anthems, the release of Lovesick Girls as a title track is quite refreshing as it aims to show the group’s more melancholy side, both in the lyrics and the production.
The most striking lyric is from the chorus where the girls sang “We are all born to be alone/But why are we still looking for love?”. This isn’t the most groundbreaking lyric at all, but it does feel a bit weird hearing that from the girls. It brings me back to the documentary where Teddy said that the songs they made for “The Album” are going to show a bit of themselves a bit more as a group.
Living as a K-pop idol is quite difficult as it is and we don’t know a lot about them since their image is very calculated by their agencies. It’s not to say they can’t be in a relationship because of the infamous “no dating” rule in the industry. The girls were probably asking themselves if they could really find love in an industry that is obsessed with perfection. Again, it’s not a very groundbreaking lyric but it does give me a bit of insight into the girls’ psyche a bit on their perspective of love.

Lyric Distribution Video

  • Rosé: 58.61 seconds | 39.00%
  • Jennie: 48.65 seconds | 32.37%
  • Lisa: 21.90 seconds | 14.57%
  • Jisoo: 21.12 seconds | 14.06%
Rosé taking up the top spot in this lyric distribution makes complete sense since this is the song that is best suited to her vocally. I have a feeling “Lovesick Girls” was a brief glimpse of what kind of song that Rosé will be releasing for her solo debut. Jennie taking up second place is quite surprising, especially her English rap verse didn’t take too long as well. The distribution on Lisa is fine, but Jisoo could’ve slightly sang more lines.

6. Crazy Over You

There’s isn’t much to talk about this song other than its production, which best utilized oriental instrumentals to hip-hop production. This isn’t the best song on “The Album”, but it isn’t as bad as well.

Lyric Distribution Video

  • Jennie: 40.26 seconds | 34.03%
  • Jisoo: 29.60 seconds | 25.01%
  • Rosé: 26.09 seconds | 22.05%
  • Lisa: 22.38 seconds | 18.91%
The lyric distribution could’ve been fair if Lisa was given more lines to rap. But I think this is fine since Jennie didn’t have a lot of rap lines in this album. It’s definitely nice to hear more of Jisoo in this song as she perfectly nailed the pre-chorus with her vocals.

7. Love to Hate Me

For some reason, Love to Hate Me reminded me so much of Ariana with the way the lyrics are sung by the girls, especially in the chorus and the ad-libs. This song serves as an appropriate penultimate track as the song delivers its final clap-back before “The Album” comes to a close with a softer pop ballad.

Lyric Distribution Video

Rosé: 28.7% Lisa: 28.1% Jennie: 26.4% Jisoo: 16.8%
Honestly, seeing lyric distributions like this where three of the members had equal parts except Jisoo makes me sad. She was close to having an equal lyrical distribution and this could’ve been done if she sang a bit more lines in the song.

8. You Never Know

We finally reach the end of “The Album” as it closes with a soft power-pop anthem that feels very in-character with Blackpink. This song already gained some attention when it was revealed that Teddy had no involvement in the song, making it the first Blackpink song without him. It’s worth pointing that out because Teddy has a mixed reaction as a main producer of the group. While I personally don’t mind Teddy as a producer, it’s quite refreshing that he isn’t involved so that the group can experiment with other producers.
This is definitely the group at their most sincere in this album, in which they address the message of not judging people based on how they look outside. This particular message rings true to the members personally and Blinks can see why.
Getting hate comments is nothing new in the K-pop industry. But Jennie seems to be the most bullied member as she was often villainized in the public eye, from her alleged “lazy dancing” scandal to the intense coverage of her short dating life with Kai from EXO. She was also unflatteringly called “YG Princess” because of accusations that the agency has favored her over other members.
With this context in mind, it was so painful to hear Jennie sing “But you'll never know unless you walk in my shoes / You'll never know my tangled strings / 'Cause everybody sees what they wanna see / It's easier to judge me than to believe” because she has faced so much criticism over nothing.
Other members have gone through similar scrutiny as well, but it’s not as bad as Jennie’s situation. All of the members worked so hard and sacrificed so much to be where they are now, so having this song that asks people not to judge them as a closer feels like the perfect ending statement from Blackpink.

Lyric Distribution Video

  • Jisoo: 59.01 seconds | 28.75%
  • Rosé: 55.47 seconds | 27.01%
  • Jennie: 54.20 seconds | 26.39%
  • Lisa: 36.66 seconds | 17.86%
It’s so nice that most of the members almost got the one-minute worth of lines and having Jisoo at the top feels satisfying after the limited line distribution she got with “Ice Cream. Vocal wise, this is their best song to date as they get to showcase their most emotional, sincere vocals in this track. The only problem is that Lisa should’ve gotten more lines, especially since her vocals sounded amazing that gives the song a more “heartfelt” feeling.

PART 5. THE CONCLUSION

Now that I have given my thoughts on each track of “The Album”, here are my overall thoughts on “The Album” and the era itself.
In the [FRESH] Popheads discussion thread of “The Album”, a lot of users were disappointed with how short the album is. Yes, the album is unfortunately quite short given that this is their first full album in Blackpink’s fourth year as a group.
Users are also disappointed with how “outdated” the songs felt. To be fair on Blackpink, K-pop tends to be a bit behind when it comes to trends. It isn’t surprising that “The Album” would have some kind of outdated production in Wester music standards. The most obvious one would be “Lovesick Girls'', which sounded like an Icona Pop song.
Sonically, the entire album isn’t even revolutionary at all. “The Album'' is produced on what’s popular in the charts right now and even the biggest Blink here (not me) would know that.
So with all these criticisms pointed out, why is “The Album” even considered as one of the Albums of the Year? Especially as someone who had Taylor Swift’s “folklore” as my own personal AOTY?
For my case as a Blink, a huge part of the reason why I am a Blink is that not only their music makes me feel alive, but also because the group has such a charismatic personality that it’s easy to see why they have a huge Western appeal.
Along with BTS, Blackpink is leading this new Hallyu wave where the West has finally taken K-pop seriously as a dominant force, not as a gimmick. With “The Album” debuting at #2 in the Billboard 200, it's the highest-charting album by a female girl group since Danity Kane in 2006. On top of that, they have sold approximately 1 million copies worldwide (estimated 319,300 copies in the US and Europe according to Pinkvilla as of October 27, 2020), which is a rare thing to achieve in the streaming era unless you’re Taylor Swift. This huge success for a K-pop girl group proves that Blackpink will always be in our area no matter what.
Even with the criticisms that “The Album” had over its short-length and its outdated production, you can at least still hear the huge amount of talent, personality and hardwork of the group in this album. It’s not the content of the album that makes “The Album” an AOTY, it’s the influence that it’s going to make to its listeners and pop culture as a whole.
You know what the Blinks will say, “BLACKPINK IS THE REVOLUTION”.

THE GUIDE QUESTIONS / a note from the author

submitted by DoctorWhoWhenHowWhy to popheads [link] [comments]

Interesting find (or not idk)

I've been analysing the last season of the Premier League and I've noticed that there is a correlation between the average posession and goals scored in certain kinds if teams.
I have divided teams into three groups by their average possesion of the ball in the past season:
1st group consists of top 6 teams by avg possesion 2nd group consist of 7th-12th ranked teams by avgm possesion of the ball 3rd group consist of bottom 8 teams by avg possesion.
Based on the data from first half of the season I have found that when teams from the first group play eachother, in 96,67% of the games there is 2 or more goals in that match, in contrast to the average of 84,24% of matches that score 2 or more goals.
On the other hand, when teams from the third group play eachother, in only 62,50% of matches there is 2 or more goals, which is an decrase of 35,35% between the two categories.
If we convert that to odds, they should be placed @1.04 for 2+ goals in a match of two teams from 1st gruop playing eachother, and @1.6 for 2+ goals in a match of two teams from 3rd group playing eachother.
The odds for 1st type of match to score 2 or more goals are usually around 1.15, and there is where we have an edge.
Because it is nonsense to bet over 1,5 goals on the 2nd type of match, we analyize if it is profitable to bet under 3,5 goals.
In the first half of 19-20 PL season, teams of the 3rd group - when playing eachother - have scored lower than 3,5 goals in the 93,75% games.
If we convert that to odds, they should be placed @1.07 for 3 goals or less in a match of two teams from 3rd group playing eachother.
The odds for 3rd type of match to score 3 goals or less are usually around 1.15, therfore we have an betting edge there also.
I know that sample is small, but I've also analized stats like shots on target, shots inside of the box, expected goals... and they all show a rising trend when teams that average higher posession are playing eachother, and other way around.
Anyways, I would appreciate if you let me know what you think, and how would you apply this in betting if you think that it is reasonable.
P.S. sorry for long post, english isn't my first language so I couldn't really find a way to summerize it
submitted by stanke33 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

Player/Analyst Tweets & Other Things – LCS Lock In Knockout Stage Quarters - TSM vs C9

Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening GrubhubGamers!
Today’s Live Analyst: Doublelift
LCS Season 11 Lock-in Tournament Format Explained
tl;dw: 3 week long tourney for experimentation (no affect on standings), Bo1 group stage round robin, top 4 of each group go to a Bo3 single elim bracket stage (bo5 for semis and finals).
GROUP A GROUP B
TSM FLY
TL C9
100T EG
CLG DIG
GG IMT
Today's Match Up:
TSM C9
Huni Fudge
Spica Blaber
PowerOfEvil Perkz
Lost Zven
SwordArt Vulcan

PREGAME

Tweets:
TSM Dunc:
  • Shoutout to 100T for allowing EU TSM fans to see our series before midnight.
C9 Veigarv2
  • Excited for our series vs @TSM tonight! Always fun to compete vs your friends, good luck @Spicalol and especially coach @Bjergsen
    • Dunc: GL bud.
SK Treatz
  • Almost forgot how much fun competing is, having the drive to not be afraid to make mistakes as a group and improving together is so much fun. Confident that we will be a great team by the end of the season even though we obviously aren't there yet
  • I learned a lot about myself and my mentality in TSM, especially how to deal with setbacks. A group full of people not afraid of making mistakes and looking silly is a group that will develop fast over time :D
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • Today 100 2-0 IMT C9 2-0 TSM
  • IMT can win if they coin flip some early bot lane aggro and win, and transfer bot pressure into mid. Have to play high-risk. TSM need better drafts, probably should try playing through top side, if they want to upset. #LCS
C9 Perkz
  • Gooood morning ! So hyped to play TSM today and the NA king himself @Bjergsen Can’t wait for some fun games
LCS Official Twitter:
  • Will the next series end in a #C9WIN or a #TSMWIN? @Cloud9 face off against @TSM next in the 2021 #LCS Lock In Quarterfinals!

DRAFT GAME 1

Doublelift:
  • Zven isn't the carry on C9. Vulcan does ALOT. And Fudge.. does a lot too... in the other direction.
  • A lot of teams talk about how teams need to play "around Gnar's bar" but that's not how it works. It's up to the top laner to manager their bar to the team. All pro top laners will say it's up to them to manage it properly, not vice versa.
  • Spica loves Nidalee, he is willing to play it anytime.
  • PoE's Lucian? Alright TSM lost. Sorry guys.. I have no faith in his Lucian.
    • TF loses the 1v1 between Lucian so Lucian should in theory have more roaming time. Would've been a really good game for PoE to play Galio though.
  • Analysts need to stop saying Gnar is good or bad. It's all situational. Last game's Gnar was pretty good.
  • Gragas top is pretty strong. Draft ended up being even between TSM and C9.
Dlim:
  • turn on stream see tsm's 1-2-3 and their draft already seems so flawed.
C9 Jack
  • Let’s have a good game @TSMReginald !

DURING GAME 1

Doublelift:
  • Thinks both drafts are pretty good. C9's draft is pretty obvious in terms of how to play it. They dive with TF. TSM's is more about kiting and poking.
  • After the trade(~2:30) bot lane. TSM is losing bot so they should just solely focus on farming.
  • Swordart takes really bad trades. Isn't sure what he is doing. Match up isn't that bad either(~3:30)
  • PoE plays way too greedy (~4:25) He should've just flashed/cleansed instead of trying to save them
  • Doesn't like that Swordart decided to afk under turret with Lost. He should know that Nautilus was going to roam mid. He should've matched Vulcan's roam.(Rewinds to ~3:50)
  • TSM seems to move too slowly. Wants Swordart to be way more proactive in matching numbers with C9. Doesn't know if it's solely just because of them being behind from earlier. (~7)
  • The teamfight (~9) results in a 1 for 1 and he thinks Fudge plays really badly. Hasn't seen him play well at all.
  • Very well played cc-chaining the closest target by TSM. Fudge is a cannon minion. Aatrox is more of a scaling champ but he doesn't really out scale Gragas. Doesn't really beat him in lane either.(~12:30) Zven hits the perfect W to get out so he can save flash.
  • TSM is in good control of the game at this point (~14) C9 is supposed to be ahead in gold because of TF passive.
  • Doesn't like that Swordart decided not to stopwatch or flash. (~14:30)
  • Again, I have not seen Fudge play a good sequence. I like when people can talk shit and back it up. Fudge is not it.(~15:10)
  • RNG gods hate PoE. PoE needs ONE crit to kill Zven but the gods did not give it to him. Might've been able to get it without a crit if he played it better. (~16:20)
  • Perkz is crazy for just facechecking bushes. He is face checking nidalee/Lucian.(17:30)
  • TSM wins this game 100% It's just a Huni gap.(~18:20) Seems like a game about engage vs disengage. TSM has great disengage.
  • C9 needs to play perfectly. TSM is on ocean soul point and the game gets harder and harder for C9 as the game goes on (19:40)
  • Ming is ALWAYS covering PoE for the potential TF ult. Really likes to see it (~20)
  • DL thinks the play at (~21) was really easy to make by Swordart and is surprised he messed it up.
  • TOP GAP THIS GAME. PUT HUNI ON TANKS FROM NOW ON. Blaber hard trolled the fight by charging on Swordart. Perkz with the mad man ult onto Lost and they trade 1 for 1 but TF is much more useful than Jhin at this point so the trade was in favor for TSM.(24)
  • C9 should sub in whoever their academy top laner is. Huni just gapped Fudge.
  • Time to put Darshan in.
  • How did TSM lose with Ocean soul and up 4k gold?? C9 should not be able to win this game.(~28)
  • Lost isn't playing the game badly despite the score. Playing fine. (1/3/5 at 29:40)
  • Huni with ocean is never going to die. He can just afk in the fight and do cartwheels at his desk and live. (~31) Lost or PoE has to die for C9 to win.
  • (~31:30) PERKZ HAS NO FLASH. SOMEONE FLASH ON HIM. Swordart please!
  • Fudge aka the Cannon Minion (~32:20)
  • In hindsight, TSM choosing to play the counter-engage game is fine. Thinks Naut should've ulted onto Lost instead of PoE.
  • Excited to see Darshan back in the LCS.
  • Riot please nerf souls. Ocean/Infernal Soul is impossible to win against. Do-able to win against mountain/cloud soul.
Ras
  • The one timer POE needs hover to crash the wave vs tp its a 3v1. (3v1 first blood on PoE)
    • Veigarv2: ;)
Veigarv2
  • Alistar is on the bench atm, need to give tsm a chance!
Liquid Nick Temp
  • ???? 100T>TL>TSM>C9 ???? Wtf lcs script

POST GAME 1

Doublelift
  • Huni vs Fudge was like someone beating on an elementary school kid. I want to see them both vs Alphari.
  • TSM 2-0 EZ Clap if C9 don't get a top laner.
Lolesports Stats:
LCS Official
  • Game one goes to @TSM as they defeat @Cloud9 for the 1-0 series lead! #TSMWIN #LCS
Cloud9 (Twitter)
  • Well, congrats on making Semis, TSM. There's no way that C9 come back from an 0-1. #LCS
Kien
  • C9 Lost
TSM Dunc
  • Not even close.
TSM Report
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • C9 vs. TSM game 1 thoughts: #LCS
  • Huni's awake!
  • Blaber + Vulcan pretty good map activity and playmaking work but playing bot into mid when you have TF and Kai'sa is a bit odd.
  • Fudge played most team fights pretty timidly, which is a bit ironic. Hope he can loosen up.
  • It's very difficult to play mid-into-bot when enemy mid lane is Lucian, so I get it. Would have to rewatch to see a) could Perkz have handled the 1v1 aspects better maybe?, b) did C9 have windows to bring Perkz bot that they didn't seize properly?

DRAFT GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Doesn't get how people can say a team is going to be really strong with an unproven player like Fudge. Smurfing in academy is the easiest thing to do for an LCS level player. So many people are good in academy and suck in LCS. It's like saying you have a good solo queue winrate.
  • Surprised by PoE playing TF. TSM is comfortable blinding Nidalee since it is Spica's best champ.
  • Gnar 4th pick actually wouldn't be that bad. Good pick against engage, awful versus kite comps.
  • Surprised Perkz wants Akali here. TF can reveal Akali in shroud.
  • Huni is either one of or THE best GP in NA.
  • TSM bot lane should have bot pressure with these picks. Wants Swordart to have more influence this game. Is not happy with how he has been playing. Says he's been playing "afk".
C9 Veigarv2
  • alistar has been brought out
Kelsey Moser
  • Fudge played teamfights pretty questionably in OPL and when he initially joined Academy I had question marks when C9 chose him over Licorice, but Fudge seems to ramp up when he gets comfortable, so I do expect him to play a lot better over the course of the season
  • Also worth noting: I wouldn't want to play Aatrox into TSM's comp that game, seems like a quality League of Legends experience up there with having a loving conversation with my fellow Summoners in All Chat
    • Pastrytime: Yeah seems like for a lot of people who didn't watch his Academy career they forgot/weren't aware of the 1500 Ornn games he first played on C9A while finding his footing.
LS
  • C9's drafts are out of this world bad in both games, absolutely insane LOL
SK Treatz
  • . @Spicalol when he gets Nidalee free win once again
Rogue (Twitter)
  • Props to @TSM & @C9 for integrating their imports so fast to the #LCS

DURING GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Good thing about Alistar is that he provides a shit ton of sustain for his ADC. When the wave crashes he heals adc for 100/200 each time. So Zven can take trades.
  • Fudge is just so... (~3:20) whatever I'm over flaming Fudge... It's too easy.
  • Spica has been tracking jungler since minute 1. Look at him taking Krugs. He can do this confidently because he's been tracking him so well (~3:50) Really blows to be Blaber right now.
  • Huge advantage to TSM right now. Really good early game. Spica can do whatever he wants (4:40)
    • Wouldn't have mattered if Perkz ran flash. Flash gold card spear isn't dodgeable.
  • FUDGE. Darshan took over! That cask was sick (~5:50)
  • Happy to see Swordart follow Alistar's roam this game (~7:40) Still surprised Alistar is the one with first move though.
  • TSM is very dragon-focused this game. C9 have no ults so they cannot contest this drag. (~10:30)
    • C9 has a lot of mental pressure on them right now since they just lost a game and are losing early drags again. TSM has soul point on the next one (~11:40)
  • The timing of C9's play here at (14:40) is bad. You don't want your ults down near drag time. TSM should get the next one for free (~1min before 3rd drag).
    • It's on Fudge to carry. Doesn't like that he is afk in lane. He should be helping his team.
  • Really good positioning by C9 @ 3rd drag. They had a good tp ward and the cask was great by Fudge.
  • Fudgev9 this game. Perkz has done zero this game. (~21:30)
  • PoE is playing really poorly this game. (~25) TF should've snowballed really well with his passive and taken over the game with item advantage. TSM's bot lane got heavily outroamed by Vulcan despite having the advantage. C9 Bot lane is currently on a different level from TSM's.

POST GAME 2

Doublelift:
  • Not shameful to get outroamed by Vulcan. He's a great player. Huni couldn't get back into the game after that first gank.
Kien
  • C9 Won (Tweeted C9 Lost last game)
C9 Veigarv2
  • B_N A_IST_R @TSM Solve this puzzle and maybe you can win.
    • Allorim: BAN AAISTAR
G2 esports (Twitter)
  • Impor- NA Twisted Fates man
    • 196 cs 1/5/3
    • 251 cs 1/2/7
Cloud9 (Twitter)
IWD
  • Just first pick gragas, whichever top laner gets it will win
TSM Report
  • The #LCS squad drops Game 2 of the Lock In Quarterfinals as the series goes to a tie-breaking Game 3.
LCS Official
  • Game three incoming! @Cloud9 bounce back in game two and pick up the win against @TSM to tie the series at 1-1! #C9WIN #LCS
Vedius
  • EU mids kinda running it down this game not gonna lie
TSM Dunc
  • We just wanted more scrims vs C9. It's all calculated.
Allorim
  • Great Grag ults this game from Fudge

DURING DRAFT GAME 3

Doublelift:
  • Wants to see Kaisa/Samira from Lost. Doesn't like the sit back and scale strat from Lost.
  • Swordart and Perkz have been somewhat disappointing so far. They should be a level ahead of everyone else.
    • Knows Swordart can step it up. He played against him and Worlds. It's just a pre-season tourney.
  • Jhin... don't like it. Guess it's his comfort pick.
  • Blaber's Kindred. Jensen used to praise Blaber's Kindred since he's so insane at it. Jensen never praises anyone unless they play really insane.
    • Blaber's Olaf/Kindred is ban worthy.
  • Can't believe C9 gave over Gragas. Gragas is great into Galio/Camille/Kindred Also can't believe C9 banned Kaisa, he's not going to play it. Lost locks in Jhin every time, why ban Kaisa?
  • Really likes the Azir pick since it shouldn't ever die to Camille Galio.
  • Sivir is a really good pick into Jhin.
  • Really don't like the Bard pick from Swordart. It is not good into Sivir at all. But it seems like TSM is going for a disengage/kite comp so it makes sense.
  • TSM: Run away/Kite Back Comp. Jhin/Azir hold on until 2/3 items. 2/3 items and it's GG. No way C9 wins.
  • C9 have to engage perfectly. Once PoE gets Zhonyas he can cancel Camille ult. C9 doesn't win unless they kill Azir.

DURING GAME 3

Doublelift:
  • TSM got the same ward as last game which is pretty good. They know where Blaber starts again.
  • Graves was a fantastic pick against this comp. Doesn't need any help against Camille/Galio/Alistar. Completely self-sufficient against those champs.
  • Should be a easy lane bot side early on. Double ranged versus Alistar
  • Huni is messing up trades top side. He is diveable atm (~3:10)

  • Really likes how TSM have strong pink ward coverage in C9's Jungle. They're currently in great control of the game. (~7:50) C9 really wanted good things to happen early with their comp and nothing happened. Down a drag and 500 gold early game is pretty bad.
  • Fudge is playing with his monitor off. TSM chases Perkz halfway across the map and Fudge is just afk pushing his lane.(9:20)

  • TSM shouldn't lose this game once mid has items. (~16:40) Perkz is getting bullied around
  • What was that from Fudge (~17:45) He is smoking something. Vulcan is saving the game every time. Humongous support gap every game so far.
  • "Step-herald I'm stuck! Oh no! .... and it doesn't do anything. Tragedy"(21)
  • Swordart is so hesistant... missing free kills. He needed to ult while the target was still slowed and he didn't to use his exhaust on Zven when he was being chased top. (~22) TSM have had great vision this game though.
  • Ming is a beast. (~24:55) Makes every jungler seem like they can't smite for shit even though Blaber didn't have smite. Massive gold swing for TSM. PoE now has stop watch. Huge.
  • Fudge made a really good play (~26:30) PoE just needs to wait for his flash to come back up and the next drag can be a big swingg for TSM. It's really hard for Lost to play this game since he needs to play like an entire screen away. Also Huni needs to sell the tear and buy a stopwatch.
  • Good call by C9. Being down 3 drags means TSM is forced to prevent dragon soul and C9 can be anywhere else in the mean time. They (C9) decided to grow instead of risking the team fight. Sivir 16 is massive. More movespeed and for longer.(29:30)
  • "Fudge Poggers" (31:50)
  • Blaber cannot smite to save his life. (32 PoE Steals) TSM should win from this point on. 2 free Barons.
  • Blaber survives with 1 hp after getting shurima'd out of his ult. Disgusting stuff. TSM really needed to win that since it meant infernal. PoE played it amazingly and then Blaber played it amazingly.
  • You have to believe you are good mechanically if you want to be a pro adc. Lost seems like he falls into comfort every game picking Jhin. You need to feel confident in your skills and play the spicy possible outplay champ. like Samira into Kaisa. Lost seems to always bank on scaling and needs to become more confident in himself.(37:20)
Azael
  • Huni ulted Blaber out of Smite range I think so POE could steal that Baron! Insane play at match point for TSM!

POST SERIES

TSM

Huni
  • nothing yet
Spica
  • nothing yet
PowerOfEvil
  • Gg @Cloud9 Not where we want to be but def a better showing than our last games Was fun facing @C9Perkz after all these years - gl in the rest of the tourny
Lost
  • nothing yet
SwordArt
  • nothing yet
Coach Bjergsen
  • nothing yet
Kayys
  • GG to C9 & TL, loads to improve but am feeling positive for LCS 2021 Also can the LCS/LEC move to a b03 system please. Actually a huge advantage for eastern block teams to have more stage games, especially for rookies
Curry
  • nothing yet
TSM (Twitter)
TSM Report
  • Our #LCS squad drops Game 3 as we bow out of the #LCS Lock In. The team returns on February 5th for the start of LCS Spring Split.
Dunc
  • Was a really fun practice tournament. Really happy Riot put it on. Pumped for LCS now Fisted hand

C9

Fudge
  • nothing yet
Blaber
  • nothing yet
Perkz
  • Wooo we proceed further on ! ☺️☺️
Zven
  • If Rekkles can play it so can I
Vulcan
  • Haha hey @JackEtienne ? in reply to tweet last year:
    • hey @JackEtienne what happens if i turbo destroy 6 mil $ swordart next year?
    • Jack: hi-5.gif
Coach Reignover
Mithy
Cloud9 Twitter
C9 Jack
C9 Veigarv2
  • 🐮 moo moo 🐮alicopter 🐮Q FLASH W 🐮 milk milk 🐮 Fail Q = win 🐮 GG XD 🐮 @VulcanLoL
C9 Portilho
  • C9 vs TSM always delivers holy FUCK GG @followdunc

OTHERS

Lolesports Stats
  • With that, @blaber is 8-1 on Kindred in the #LCS.
Doublelift
  • I'm a fan of TSM. I'm biased but their bot lane got gapped this series. They keep getting bot gapped in their games and they need to figure it out.
Pastrytime
  • LET'S GO @Fudgecakey Feels like he powered-up throughout this series in a big way, but C9 also made sure to give him tools to succeed. Only question is when can I watch these two #LCS teams play again 'cause that series absolutely SLAPPED.
Azael
  • FBI & Huhi Zven & Vulcan CoreJJ & Tactical The difference between these 3 bot lanes and the rest of the league feels ENORMOUS so far in #LCS. Bot diff almost every single game!
G2 Esports
  • TSM XD
MikeYeung
  • BLABER KINDRED IS ACTUALLY CRAZY
    • he knows his limits so well
  • One of the biggest smurfs @Fudgecakey
Markz
  • Really fun series between TSM and C9, super back and forth. Both teams also looking like they have a lot of work to get onto the 100T/TL tier.
Tim Sevenhuysen
  • I've seen a lot of pre-tournament sentiment about not judging teams or players too harshly on too few games early in the year.
Kelsey Moser
Vedius
  • One of these supports should be paid 6 big ones thats for sure
LCS Official
submitted by ImLegacys to TeamSolomid [link] [comments]

How much WAR would a perfect (yet shy) leadoff man accrue in a Major League season?

This is part 3 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here and How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season? here.

That's right, boys and girls. We're back with a new conundrum. Let me set the stage. Speedy McHitterson has been discovered to be a perfect leadoff hitter. He makes every play in center, he steals second at every opportunity, he has a perfect eye, and when he's thrown a strike, he gets a hit every time. However, he's incredibly shy and afraid to overstep his bounds. This means he'll never swing at a pitch outside the zone, even if he knows he can hit it. He also will never go past first base on a hit, so every his is a single. Speedy is afraid of stepping on teammates toes, literally and figuratively, so he won't make any plays in the field that weren't meant for him. He's also fearful of being perceived as too overconfident, so stealing third is out of the question, let alone stealing home. But for the things he does do, he has a 100% success rate.
To the categories!

Positional Adjustment

Speedy, like Tate, will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs.

Replacement Level

As previously established, the average leadoff hitter would have ~761 PA per 162 games. But Speedy is no average leadoff hitter. Speedy will have a 1.000 OBP. Meaning compared to the average 255 on-base events for an average leadoff man, Speedy will have 761, which is an extra 506. Following the logic from last time, getting on base an extra 506 times will result in another 56 PA (If one out of every nine extra on-base events result in an extra PA). Which, in turn, will result in an extra 4 PA (I think). So in the end of the day, Speedy will end up with 821 PA on the season.
So if Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 821 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x821 coming out to 25.8 Runs.
28.3 Runs

Fielding

This one, it turns out, is quite simple. Similar to how we determined a potato's fielding runs, we compare this perfect player to the 2020 Cincinnati Reds centerfielders. To recap, in 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. Speedy, being perfect, would allow a 0 wOBA (his middle name is Fielder). Home run robberies are out of the question because, you know. So we'll compare them the same way we did last time, with the same formula we use to determine batting runs batting runs. First we determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So the calculation would go thusly:
((.000wOBA -.490lg wOBA )/1.1857wOBA Scale )x700Opportunities = 289.3 runs
I just realized something really cool. I actually calculated Tater to have this precise number of negative runs, because his wOBA allowed would be exactly double the average. This means if Speedy and Tate were to alternate games, they would average to a league average fielder.
317.6 Runs

Batting

We've already established a few facts. Speedy McHitterson will get about 821 PA in a season. He does not swing at balls outside the strikezone. He hits every ball in the strikezone for a single. This would result in a 1.000/1.000/1.000 slash line, but we would still need to determine how many walks and hits he'd get. So I put together a little table to figure that out.
Count Frequency Zone Out of Zone Strike odds Ball odds Strike overall odds Ball overall odds
0-0 1.000 95745 89033 .518 .482 .518 .482
0-1 .518 39460 53598 .424 .576 .220 .298
0-2 .220 14985 33022 .312 .688 .069 .151
1-0 .482 37702 33833 .527 .473 .254 .228
1-1 .552 35402 38838 .477 .523 .263 .289
1-2 .415 25414 44600 .363 .637 .150 .264
2-0 .228 13872 10640 .566 .434 .129 .099
2-1 .418 21098 17739 .543 .457 .227 .191
2-2 .491 37457 33526 .528 .472 .259 .232
3-0 .099 4573 2930 .609 .391 .060 .039
3-1 .251 9652 6289 .605 .395 .152 .099
3-2 .384 21163 16146 .567 .433 .218 .166
So to explain: the "Frequency" column is the overall frequency of the count, assuming no swings (which is important, as I'll explain in a second). This was determined by the following columns. "Zone" is pitches in the strikezone on that count. "Out of zone" is pitches outside the strikezone on that count. The next two columns are the percentages of a ball/strike in each count. Knowing that, we can tell the frequency of each count, if the batter never swung. 0-1 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-0. 0-2 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-1, times the odds of 0-1 occurring in the first place. 1-1 is the overall odds of a ball on 0-1 plus the overall odds of a strike on 1-0. We can use this chart to work out the number of walks of Mr. McHitterson. If he swings at every ball in the zone, and they all go for hits, the only way for him to get walked is if he's thrown four straight balls. According to this chart, that only happens 3.9% of the time, which we can now use as his walk rate. A 3.9% walk rate with 821 PA comes out to 32 walks in a season. Which leaves him with 789 hits, all for singles. Let's plug that into our wOBA formula. (32walks x.69walk constant +789singles x.870 single constant )/821PA =.863 wOBA
And from wOBA to wRAA: ((.863wOBA -.320lg wOBA )/1.157wOBA Scale )x821PA = 385.3 wRAA
702.9 Runs

Baserunning

To start, we give Speedy the same boost we gave Tate for never hitting into a double play. Over 821 PA, that comes up to 5.9 Runs. But the real value will come from stealing bases. To refresh, Speedy will steal second every time it's available. Afraid of looking like he's showing off, he will never attempt a double steal or a steal of third or home. We'll make the assumption that overall, the situations he's on base (always) will look like the league averages of occupied bases. There were 55998 plate appearances with men on first in 2019. Of those, 34240 (61%) were just a man on first. 12347 (22%) were first and second. 5026 (9%) were first and third. 4385 (8%) were bases loaded. This means that in 70% of situations with a man on first, second base was open. With a SB rate of 100% of the 70% of times on base (which is identical to the number of PAs) McHitterson had, this puts him at 575 steals for the season (that would be a record, by the way). Fangraphs gives .2 Runs per SB. This adds 115 Runs to our count, which comes out to a total of 121.8 baserunning runs. 824.7 Runs

Conclusion

824.7 is a lot of runs. If we do the 10.296 Runs/Win conversion it comes out to 80.1 WAR. As I said, that's a loooooooot. [Speedy could split time with Tate and they'd still combine for 32.5 WAR. It would take over five Taters to cancel out a Speedy.] EDIT: In my excitement, I accidentally confused myself with a potato. I'm the one who'd combine for 32.5 WAR. I'm the one who would need to be cloned five times to cancel out a Speedy. Tate and Speedy would actually combine to have a 17.6 WAR, which is still better than the best single-season WAR of all time. Two Taters would more than cancel out a Speedy. If you put Speedy on a team that literally did nothing else, he'd still make them roughly a .500 team.
TL;DR 80.1 WAR - Holy Fuck
Coming soon.....If Shohei Ohtani were actually Superman, how much WAR would he get?
submitted by slightlyaw_kward to baseball [link] [comments]

Common Misconceptions: Grinnell College

Hi everyone, hope all of you are doing well and staying safe. After u/37scrub came up with the Common A2C Misconceptions series, I decided to add on with a post on Grinnell College, particularly for those of you who are high school juniors and trying to create college lists for the 2021-2022 application cycle.
If you're interested in reading some of the other Common Misconception posts out there, I highly recommend them as they are incredibly well written. You can find them here:
Common Misconceptions: Carnegie Mellon University by u/37scrub
Do your research before believing anything you see on here by u/gooddaythrowaway11
​
I also wrote a LAC Highlight posts on Grinnell, the college I currently attend, back in early summer. If you are interested, you can find this here.
​
Alright, let us get started! I hope you enjoy this post and find it helpful.

Admissions

Academics

Financial Aid

Student Life

Overall

​
I hope you all found this helpful! Let me know if you ever have any questions about Grinnell, and I am always happy to answer them and talk about Grinnell with you. I unfortunately cannot answer any questions on on-campus life yet because we have been remote due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, once I get on-campus late January, I will be able to begin answering questions you have about it.
To all of you high school seniors finishing up the final RD applications that are due mid-January, good luck with the applications! To all of you waiting for March, all the best of luck! I am rooting for all of you and hope it works out.
​
Have a nice day!
submitted by eccentricgalaxy to ApplyingToCollege [link] [comments]

win double odds calculator video

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