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Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 10: Ten Year Review

Welcome back to year ten of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029).
We had another good year last season, finishing 98-64. That was good enough for the second-best record in the league but only second in the division, so we missed out on the playoffs. Hopefully, we can maintain a similar record and make the playoffs this year.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Edwin Aguirre
Aguirre is a good defender but can’t cut it at the plate in the majors. I doubt he gets called up again.
Franyel Baez
Baez gave us six good years, but I decided it was time to part ways. He signed a minor league deal with the Orioles and did well when he played, but I doubt he’ll ever get the opportunity to be a full-time starter again.
Will Shirah
Shirah had a $10m arbitration estimate and was coming off an injury plagued season, so I decided to let him walk. He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers and ended up starting 138 games for them. He was decent but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get another shot next year.
Hee-joon Bang
Bang was great during his three-year tenure with us, but I didn’t feel comfortable paying a 36-year-old as much as he wanted. He signed a 2/$24m deal with the Angels and played well, but not nearly as good as his previous two seasons.
David Bednar
I was scared off by Bednar’s age and regression, so let him leave as a free agent. He signed with the rival Braves and did well.
Corbin Clouse
Clouse was decent last year but I decided to let him leave as a free agent since he’s getting pretty old. He signed with San Diego and played well, but they put him on waivers, and he was claimed by Pittsburgh. I feel like he’s got to fall off a cliff sooner than later.
Blake Taylor
Taylor had too many injuries for my liking last season, so I decided to let him walk. He signed with Boston and was passable.
Move #1:
Signed free agent Chang-hyeok Kim to a 5/$30m contract. The fifth year is a team option with a $1m buyout.
I’m breaking a lot of my rules by signing Kim. He’s an old reliever with bad character, and I signed him to a long-term deal. If this doesn’t work out, I shouldn’t be too surprised. Hopefully, the other guys can keep him in line.
Move #2:
Signed free agent Ali Sanchez to a 2/$3m contract. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
Sanchez will take the backup catcher role. Hopefully, he doesn’t fall off a cliff midseason.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $26m in budget room to start the year, so we shouldn’t have any issues signing draft picks and an international amateur.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Season Outlook:
We didn’t do much this offseason, but I don’t think we needed to. We had the second-best record in baseball last year and brought back most of the team. We have some young guys that are going to get a shot and hopefully some of them break out.
If we stay healthy, I think we’ll win 90+ games and compete for the division, and if we make the playoffs, I like our chances as much as anyone else.
If you read last year’s version, you might remember my top prospect Chris West. His ratings have continued to explode, and he looks ready for the majors. I’m very excited to see what a true ace can do with our defense, but I’m going to try to keep him in the minors the first month or two.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues)*
1B – Ernesto Bernal
I wish I would’ve put Bernal in the leadoff spot a few years ago, he’s been excellent here the last two seasons. He had his best season yet, making his first all-star team. He thinks he should be in the middle of the lineup, but he’s wrong. I guess my scout misevaluated his intelligence rating.
LF – Jeisson Rosario
Rosario has been with us since day one. He bounced back and forth between the majors and minors the first few years, but he’s been a solid starter the last six seasons. I’m tempted to re-sign him, but it’s probably time to give some of my young guys a shot.
3B – Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis came back with a vengeance this season. He was an all-star starter, won batter of the month in June, and won the platinum stick award at third base. He probably had the best season in franchise history, which is saying a lot since Ohtani won two MVPs, but he came up short of winning the award himself. He finished third behind Bovain and Torres.
Tatis has two years remaining on his deal and should be back.
DH – Robby Teeter
Teeter wasn’t as good as his first two seasons, but still had a really good year, making his third all-star team. His arbitration estimate is close to $12m and he had seven weeks of day-to-day injuries, so he might get moved in the next couple of seasons.
RF – Andrew McGee
I had a feeling McGee wasn’t going to last long in the league. He had durable injury proneness coming out of the draft, but quickly racked up leg injuries and saw his proneness drop to normal. He suffered a torn PCL in August and will be out until June of next year.
This is why you need to pay close attention to injury histories, instead of only relying on injury proneness ratings. Injury proneness is an average of their individual injury ratings, so it won’t tell you if a guy is highly susceptible in only one category.
I’ll trade him as soon as I can. Hopefully, he still has some value.
2B – Josh Epps
I’m starting to wonder if Epps is completely out of secret sauce. He’ll return due to his character and defense, but I’m not expecting anything offensively going forward. This is part of the reason I don’t like signing young guys to long-term deals.
C – Drew Romo
Romo continues to be excellent defensively and competent at the plate. He’s an upcoming free agent that wants 4/$52m to re-sign, so I’m going to let him enter free agency. I have a feeling I can get him for a much better price on the open market.
SS – Willie Vega
Vega had another great season but missed out on winning a fifth straight gold glove. His last arbitration estimate is close to $15m and I’ll probably bring him back since I don’t know where I can get a comparable replacement.
I’m not crazy about signing a guy without positive character attributes to a long -term deal, so he’ll probably leave as a free agent after next season. It’s tempting to go ahead and trade him now, but I’m perfectly fine getting a compensation pick. I trust in my ability to draft good players.
CF – Joey Hudson
Hudson is probably the best center fielder in our franchise’s ten-year history. He’ll be back next season.
Bench
C – Ali Sanchez
Sanchez provided exactly what I wanted in a backup catcher. I’ll pick up his team option for next season.
IF – Josh Berkner
I was hoping Berkner could improve to a league average hitter, but I’m fine what he provides. He plays five positions and has the prankster personality trait.
OF – Tim Mehler
Mehler can’t really hit but is an ace defender. He backed up all three outfield positions and saved a lot of runs.
Replacements
OF – Oscar Trevino
Trevino filled in for McGee for a few weeks in May and wasn’t very good. I’m not giving up on him though, he’ll get another chance if injuries arise next year.
IF – Manny Monzon
Monzon filled in for Epps when he missed five weeks. His defense was so good he had positive WAR while posting an OPS+ of 50. This might be my Vega replacement after next year.
OF – Mike Startzel
Startzel was drafted last season and started in the majors just a year later. He played well and will probably be the starter next season.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Hunter Mink
Mink had another great year, leading the team in pitching WAR. I have two more years of team control, but his arbitration estimate is $13.1m and he’s getting close to 30 years old. I might go ahead and move him while his trade value is still high.
SP – Giles Palacios
Palacios had a great third season with us, starting the all-star game and finishing second in the Cy Young voting. If I’m going to extend one of my pitchers, he’ll probably be the one, but it depends what the rest of the financials looks like.
SP – Pat Dibartolo
Dibartolo is a really good pitcher, but probably the worst two-time Cy Young winner I’ve ever seen. He won the award this year despite being the third best pitcher on the team. He’s still really good though, and extremely popular, so he’ll be around for a while.
SP – Rawley Hector
Hector was passable this year but demoted to make room for my star pitching prospect. He might get another look next season if I move on from Mink.
SP – Sean Whiteman
Whiteman wasn’t as good as I wanted but I think he’ll be better in his second full season.
RP – Chris Ryan
Last year I was worried Ryan’s ratings would stall out, but he’s progressed nicely. His performance was slightly worse this season, although I’m not too worried. There’s a lot of variance with relief pitchers.
RP – Connor Jones
Jones had a good year, but his ratings have slipped and I’m going to decline his team option.
RP – Ludwin Jimenez
Jimenez was decent but I had a to make room to call up my phenom reliever, and he was the odd man out. He might be back next year.
RP – Mike Ruhs
Ruhs is really good and will be back for many years.
RP – Taylor Guilbeau
Guilbeau had a good year but his ratings started falling fast at the end of the season. I’m going to decline his team option.
RP – Sam Lauderdale
Lauderdale continues to be a steady presence in the bullpen and will return next year.
RP – Joe McKinney
McKinney played well and his ratings have improved since last season. I’m expecting big things from him next year.
RP – Chang-hyeok Kim
Year one of the Chang-hyeok Kim experiment was a success. He made the all-star team and won reliever of the year. I’m probably going to go ahead and move him though. His ratings have slipped slightly since his signing and I have a new guy that makes him redundant. Hopefully, I can get an asset for him, but I’ll settle for a salary dump.
RP – Cooper Benson
Benson was pushed out of the rotation due to better options but could return to a starting role next year. It’s always nice to have pitching depth like this.
Replacements
SP – Chris West
I kept West in the minors as long as I could then put him in the starting rotation in June. He did well for a 21-year-old rookie and should be even better next year.
SP – Josh Sheppard
It took a while, but the return from the Jack Flaherty trade finally made his major league debut. He made nine starts, posting an FIP of 3.16, and will be in the rotation next season.
RP – Corey MacDonald
I’m really not sure what to do with MacDonald. He worked as a starter in AA, winning the pitcher of the year award, then moved to the bullpen when called up and dominated as a reliever. I wouldn’t hesitate to put him in the rotation if his slider was rated above 45, but the lack of a third pitch and a questionable stamina/hold runners combo has me doubtful he can start.
RP – Tommy Noonan
If you don’t click on any other profile in this write up, click on this one. Noonan is unreal. He faced 48 batters and struck out 25 of them. If he continues at this rate, he’ll be the greatest reliever of all time.
Season Results:
We started the year strong, going 25-15 our first 40 games, and never let up. We clinched the division with fifteen games remaining and had a record of 106-56. This was our best team yet and I really liked our chances heading into the playoffs. We had four good starting pitchers, a dominant bullpen, and three elite batters.
Our first-round opponent was the 86-76 Giants, led by Jack Flaherty, Joey Bart, Luis Robert, and Danny Hoover. They had a solid team, but nowhere near as good as ours.
We started off the series strong, winning game one 8-2. Palacios struck out ten and gave up one earned over seven innings, and the offense came through with three homers. We were still rolling in game two, up 4-2 in the eighth, then our young stud reliever Macdonald gave up a two-run shot to tie the game 4-4, followed by our other hot-shot reliever Noonan giving up a go-ahead solo shot in the tenth. They held on to win game two 5-4. We looked to get back on track in game three, but the offense sputtered, and we lost 3-1. The offense continued to struggle, scoring two runs total the next two games, and they closed out the series.
We went from postseason favorites to knocked out 4-1 in the first round. Good times. Then, to add insult to injury, we were as many steps removed from the championship as possible.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
On a positive note, my contract was extended for three years. I’m a long way removed from worrying about whether or not I’m going to be fired. I honestly didn’t even know my contract was expiring.
Top Prospects:
There are a lot of new faces this year since seven players from last season’s list were promoted to the majors. There are a couple of guys I don’t love at the bottom of the list but a great draft this year has restocked the talent at the top.
1.) Andy Schaffer
For the second year in a row, I’ve had a pitcher get a huge ratings boost and jump to the number one spot. Last season it was Chris West and this time it’s Andy Schaffer. The big difference between the two is that West was already a good prospect before jumping to number one, but Schaffer wasn’t even on my radar last season. When I made the rankings last year, I was going off Schaffer’s 5/19/2029 scouting report, which had him as a 20-potential player, but his ratings have exploded since then. His control and stuff have improved significantly, and he’s added a really good sinker. I had no clue he’d become this when I drafted him, I really just took a flier on his high movement. He’ll begin next season at A+.
2.) Edwin Mireles
Mireles might be my first successful international amateur free agent signing in five years. He had a solid season in rookie ball and his potential has held steady. His defensive ratings improved slightly and I’m hoping they can get even better. I’ll probably move him to A- next season.
3.) Dave Codes
Codes had a great year in rookie ball and looks like he’ll be a legitimate masher in a few seasons. He’ll start next year in A or A+.
4.) Chris Dearborn
The next three players on the list were all taken in this year’s draft and are a huge reason our minor league system is in such good shape. If Dearborn’s changeup develops, he’ll be a top starter, and I like his chances due to his high work ethic and durability.
He had an “impossible” signing bonus demand, so I was able to scoop him up in the fifth round. He agreed to sign for $10m.
5.) Eddie Copping
I don’t love Copping’s movement, but he had the best combination of character, durability, and talent on the board. He had a great season in rookie ball and will begin next year in A+.
6.) Bobby Butler
Butler had a solid season in rookie ball and will probably begin next season in A-. He has a good chance of becoming an MLB starter if he can stay healthy.
7.) Josh Snellgrove
Snellgrove had a good year in A+ and I’ll probably start him in AAA next season as the first injury replacement. His defense has rounded out since last year, but it looks like his talent might’ve capped out. Hopefully, he has something extra in the tank.
8.) Josh Boston
If Boston reaches his full potential, he’ll be a very useful player. Hopefully, his leadership improves at some point.
9.) Josh McBride
McBride really only has the potential to be a utility player, but there’s nothing wrong with that. He’ll start next season at AA, and I’ll start training him at different positions.
10.) Steve Flores
Flores doesn’t look to have enough hitting potential to survive in the majors, but his defense and character might get him there. He’ll start next season at A+.
Promoted to MLB:
Chris West, Josh Sheppard, Joey Hudson, Joe McKinney, Tommy Noonan, Corey MacDonald, Oscar Trevino
Dropped from list:
Josh Langdon
Langdon has developed nicely since last season but I’m out on him. I don’t trust fragile pitchers, so he’ll be traded.
Future Outlook:
It’s always disappointing when your 100+ win team gets knocked out in the first round, but the franchise is in a great position overall. We have lots of talent at every level of the organization, no bad contracts, and good fan interest/loyalty. I would love to win another championship, but I think we’re doing pretty good for a team that didn’t exist ten years ago.
The books are getting a bit tighter, so I’ll probably have to move a few of our key contributors, but I think we have enough minor league depth to keep rolling.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.
Ten Year Review:
The transition from “scrappy expansion team trying to compete with the big boys” to “legitimate perennial contender” has been exciting. We’ve had multiple thrilling pennant races and an amazing World Series run. We started off with a team full of rookies and veteran castoffs, and no farm system, but now have talent up and down the organization. I’m very happy with where we’re at.
I was interested to see where our players and production have come from over the last ten years, so I decided to plot it out. Here’s the percentage of players by acquisition type and the percentage of total WAR by acquisition type. Unsurprisingly, we’ve relied less and less on expansion and rule 5 draft players and started filling out the team with draft picks. The bulk of our production still comes from players acquired in trades, but I’m hoping that changes over the next few years. I really hope we can develop that home grown superstar sooner than later.
I was also interested to see who the top players were for the first decade, so I ranked the top-five position players, starting pitchers, and relievers by total WAR and then by single season WAR. The rankings are below:
\Total WAR Player profiles are from the most recent season with team*
Top 5 Position Players by Total WAR
1.) Shohei Ohtani (6 Seasons, 29.9 WAR)
2.) Willie Vega (5 Seasons, 22.1 WAR)
3.) Jeisson Rosario (10 Seasons, 19 WAR)
4.) Nick Gordon (7 Seasons, 17.7 WAR)
5.) Ernesto Bernal (6 Seasons, 14.7 WAR)
Top 5 Position Player Seasons by WAR
1.) 2030 Fernando Tatis Jr. (9 WAR)
2.) 2023 Shohei Ohtani (8.2 WAR)
3.) 2027 Shohei Ohtani (6.6 WAR)
4.) 2022 Nolan Arenado (5.9 WAR)
5.) 2029 Willie Vega (5.7 WAR)
Top 5 Starting Pitchers by Total WAR
1.) Hunter Mink (4 Seasons, 16 WAR)
2.) Jack Flaherty (3 Seasons, 13.7 WAR)
2.) Jose Paulino (5 Seasons, 13.7 WAR)
4.) Pat Dibartolo (4 Seasons, 11.9 WAR)
5.) Justin Steele (7 Seasons, 11.4 WAR)
Top 5 Starting Pitcher Seasons by WAR
1.) 2024 Jack Flaherty (5.2 WAR)
2.) 2030 Hunter Mink (5 WAR)
3.) 2026 Jose Paulino (4.9 WAR)
4.) 2028 Hunter Mink (4.6 WAR)
4.) 2030 Gilles Palacios (4.6 WAR)
Top 5 Relievers by Total WAR
1.) Hee-joon Bang (3 Seasons, 10.1 WAR)
2.) Blake Taylor (7 Seasons, 9.6 WAR)
3.) Argenis Angulo (6 Seasons, 6 WAR)
4.) Jordan Alvarez (2 Seasons, 5.2 WAR)
5.) Connor Jones (5 Seasons, 5.2 WAR)
Top 5 Reliever Seasons by WAR
1.) 2028 Hee-joon Bang (3.9 WAR)
1.) 2029 Hee-joon Bang (3.9 WAR)
3.) 2026 Jordan Alvarez (3.4 WAR)
4.) 2030 Chang-hyeok Kim (2.9 WAR)
5.) 2025 Ben Bowden (2.8 WAR)
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Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 12: A New Era

Welcome back to year twelve of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031). Go ahead and grab some popcorn, this is a long one.
We had another great season last year, followed by another disappointing playoff exit. I like where the franchise is at though. We have great fan interest/loyalty, talent at every level of the organization, and no bad contracts. We’re probably going to have to part with a few key contributors this offseason, but that’s bound to happen when you have as much talent as we do. With a few smart moves, we should push closer to a title this year.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Edwin Aguirre
Aguirre spent some time in the majors last year when Romo was injured but wasn’t needed this season. He’s entering minor league free agency, and I don’t think he’s worth keeping on the 40-man, so he probably won’t be back.
Josh Berkner
Berkner got three shots in the majors and didn’t do much with his opportunities, so I decided to give someone else a chance. He spent the year in AAA.
Tim Mehler
Mehler is great defensively but just can’t cut it at the plate. He was out of options, so I let him leave as a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with the Rockies.
Move #1:
Signed Ali Sanchez to a 2/$3m extension. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
This move isn’t very exciting, but don’t worry, things will heat up below.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Luis Godoy, $6.4m Cash
Brewers Receive: Robby Teeter, Sean Whiteman
This move kills three birds with one stone. I cashed out on Teeter while his value was still high, cleared some of the starting pitcher logjam, and added an elite power hitter. Also, the departure of Teeter allows us the ability to build a more versatile roster, which is something I’ve wanted to do for a while.
The Brewers are winning this trade from a straight value perspective, but I’m no longer in the business of trying to win trades. I’m trying to win championships. You can collect all the assets and value contracts in the world, but at the end of the day, you need top end talent to win at the highest level – and Godoy provides that. He has questionable character, but I should have enough leadership to counter his selfish ways.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Edgar Sanchez, Bryn Hill, Caleb Gunther, Omar Taborda, Tim Brackman
Athletics Receive: Chris West
West might have more potential than any pitcher in the league, but I felt the opportunity to acquire Sanchez was too great to pass up. He’s an elite defender, above average offensively, has durable injury proneness, and has great character. He could anchor the middle of my infield for the next ten years. West might win the next five Cy Youngs, but I’m betting against that considering his low work ethic and the general injury proneness of pitchers.
Then to make the deal even better, the Athletics threw in an assortment of high character minor leaguers. There might not be a single player in the bunch that makes the majors, but they’ll at least help provide a better environment for other guys.
Move #4:
Slammers Receive: Bob Banks, $3m Cash
Angels Receive: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Why am I getting rid of Tatis for a low-level minor leaguer with a 5% chance of making the majors? You’ll find out when you get to move number six.
The Angels signed Tatis to a 5/$237.5m extension about a week after the trade. I don’t see any way that deal ends well for them.
Move #5:
Slammers Receive: Alan McCarter
Rays Receive: Josh Epps, $1.1m Cash
At surface level, this trade doesn’t make much sense either, but I needed to clear Epps $10m arbitration estimate for next season. I think Epps is what he is at this point and I’m really not that worried about losing him. MacCarter is a good reliever and replaces Epps as the team prankster.
Move #6:
Signed free agent Willie Vega to a 7/$190m deal. The last year is a team option with a $2m buyout.
This is the driving force behind moves five and six. I fully intended to move on from Vega at the start of the offseason, but after looking at my roster at the start of free agency, I decided he was irreplaceable. He provides gold glove defense, above average offense, and hits from the left side of the plate, which makes balancing lineups much easier. I could’ve had him for much cheaper if I decided to commit last year but this is the price of my indecision.
His deal is heavily front loaded and should be movable if things don’t go well later in the contract.
Move #7 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3):
Slammers Receive: $13.7m Cash
Slammers Lose: Joe Stadler, Randy Macke, Nesty Luna
Nothing much to see here, just your annual “prospects for cash” trades. Macke is a solid player but was rule 5 eligible and I didn’t want to waste a 40-man roster spot on him.
Move #8:
Slammers Receive: $1m Cash
Dodgers Receive: Cooper Benson, Sam Lauderdale, Kade Grundy
This is just a salary dump. I have enough depth now there’s really no point in keeping Benson and Lauderdale around. I threw in Grundy to get some extra cash.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $27m in budget room to start the year, so should be able to finish the season in the green, but I’ll probably trade a few more prospects to get closer to completing the owner goal of finishing with a balance of $20m. I’m also boosting ticket prices from $35 to $40, so that should help as well.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Season Outlook:
I’m very interested to see how this season turns out. We’ve been cruising along the past 2-3 years with the same core roster but really shook things up this offseason. I think these moves put us in a better position to win now and in the future, but there’s always the concern I’m just making moves out of boredom. Here are the five things I’m most curious about heading into the season:
1.) Can Vega provide close to what he’s provided the past few years? I didn’t give him that contract in anticipation of him becoming the next Barry Bonds, I just want him to keep doing what he’s doing. If he can do that for another three years, I’ll be happy.
2.) Is MacDonald really a top of the line starting pitcher? He was the best reliever in the league last year and his trade value is sky high. Every team I traded with this offseason valued him as my second-best asset after Chris West. His overall rating is really good, but I’m concerned about his lack of stuff and questionable stamina/hold runners combo.
3.) How does the offense perform after losing our 3-4 hitters from last season? I know I replaced one of them with Godoy, but players tend to struggle when first joining a new team, and we don’t have a second premier middle of the order bat. We’ll mostly be doing an offense by committee approach.
4.) Can Hines handle a full-time starting role? With the departure of Tatis, I’m moving Bernal to third base and starting Hines at first. He’s not a traditional first baseman but he played well last year and has an efficient ratings profile. I’ll be happy if he provides league average offense.
5.) How will the Hopper/Muntner DH platoon fare? Hopper should be an elite leadoff man vs. RHP and Muntner should be solid vs. LHP. I’m hoping Hopper can play a full season if he doesn’t have to play in the field.
If things go well, we should win another 100+ games and make a strong push at a title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP listed below)*
DH – Jeff Hopper
Other than a day-to-day injury to end the year, Hopper stayed healthy the entire season and played really well. He had an OBP of .370 and provided exactly what I wanted from the leadoff spot. He should be back in the same role next year.
3B – Ernesto Bernal
I forgot to mention above, but Bernal signed a 5/$110m in the offseason. He’s an all-star, has high character, durable injury proneness, and is in the prime of his career, so it made a lot of sense to bring him back at this price. He’s been with the organization for ten years and it would be really cool to have him around for ten more.
He moved from first to third base this season and made his third all-star team.
RF – Luis Godoy
Godoy didn’t have the type of year I expected but was still really good. He was an all-star starter and put up 5.1 WAR in just 128 games. I expect him to be much better next season after having a full year to adjust to his new team.
He missed the last month of the year with a sprained thumb, but he should be fine going forward.
LF – Marcus Flakes
Flakes isn’t the second middle of the order bat I dreamed about as a kid, but he did well in the role, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 101 runs. He still has one more year on a minimum scale deal, so he’ll definitely return.
SS – Willie Vega
Willie Vega: The Fifty Million Dollar Man – That doesn’t really sound appropriate for a guy with 4.6 WAR, but I’m actually very happy with what he did. Him and Sanchez formed an unreal middle infield defensive combo, which resulted in this (major spoilers for the pitcher section).
We’re not out of the woods yet with his contract but I think we’ll be good if he performs well again next year. At the end of next season, he’ll only have 4/$87m guaranteed remaining, which should be moveable if need be.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
I didn’t realize how much Epps was holding us back defensively until Sanchez came to town. He won his third gold glove and was a huge part of the reason we had a team ERA under 3. His offense was average, but I could see that getting much better the next few seasons.
1B – Jonathan Hines
I was hoping Hines would be a league average hitter, and he fell just short of that. I’ll upgrade in the offseason if the right player is available but I’m not going to break the bank. Not every player has to be an all-star.
CF – Joey Hudson
Hudson had a great year and is really starting to establish himself as one of the better center fielders in the league. He probably deserves to bat higher in the order next season, but I might wait for his baserunning to improve just a bit more.
C – Drew Romo
It’s been a long time coming, but Romo finally won his first gold glove. He’s been the best defensive catcher in the game for a while, but I don’t play my guys enough to easily rack up awards. I’d rather have them available for the playoffs.
He’s an upcoming free agent and his offense is falling off a cliff, but I’m probably going to bring him back. If things go poorly, I’ll replace him midseason.
Bench
C – Ali Sanchez
I don’t expect much from my backup catcher, and Sanchez doesn’t provide much, so I guess everyone was happy with the way his season turned out. I think I’m going to decline his team option and go with the guy that replaced him while he was injured.
IF – Manny Monzon
Monzon keeps the middle infield defense elite while the starters rest but doesn’t do much on offense. I might give someone else a shot next year.
OF – Josh Muntner
Muntner served as the primary DH vs. LHP and backed up left and right field against RHPs. He started in 99 games and really didn’t do much with his opportunity, so I guess I was one for two with my DH platoon experiment.
Replacements
C – Danny Wells
Wells filled in for six weeks when Sanchez was injured and didn’t do much worse than the vet. I’m probably going to let him have the backup catcher role next season.
OF – Mike Startzel
Startzel played well last year but I decided to replace him with a right-handed bat. He was called up when Godoy was injured and started the last month of the year in right field.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Pat Dibartolo
Dibartolo had another great year, making his third all-star team and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. I would love to keep him around until he retires but his ratings have started to slip slightly, and I don’t think he’ll last too long into his thirties. I’ll bring him back for his last arbitration season, then let him walk as a free agent.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios has come a long way since I traded for him in 2028. He was the all-star game starter and won his first Cy Young. I’ll look to sign him long-term in the offseason.
SP – Corey MacDonald
I wasn’t sure if MacDonald was good enough to be a top-of-the-line starter, but there’s no doubt about it now – he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball. He made his second all-star game, threw two complete game shutouts, won the pitcher of the month award in June, won the gold glove award, and finished third in the Cy Young voting. With his high character and durability, he should be a good player for a long time.
SP – Josh Sheppard
Sheppard was the fourth member of our golden pitcher quartet. He made the all-star game and finished second in the Cy Young voting.
SP – Jonathan Kelsey
Kelsey was decent but I had to demote him in June to make room for my number one prospect. He was called back up when rosters expanded and we went to a six-man rotation.
RP – Chris Ryan
I mentioned a few years ago that pitchers with Ryan’s profile never seem to reach their potential and it seems like Ryan has followed suit. He’s a solid player but nowhere near as good as his 70 potential suggested a few years back.
RP – Steve Bacon
Bacon really didn’t pitch enough to properly evaluate. We’ll probably go to an eight-man bullpen next season, and if Bacon is a member of it, we can properly evaluate him then.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter was really good and looks like he has the potential to be even better. Hopefully, his control rounds out next season.
RP – Danny Ibarra
Ibarra finally gave up his dream of being a starter and accepted his role in the bullpen. He posted almost identical stats as last year and I hope he does the same next season.
RP – Justus Evans
I wasn’t a big fan of Evans ratings profile but decided to give him a shot since he dominated in AAA last year. He was pretty underwhelming in limited appearances, and probably deserves another look, but he’ll be changing positions next season. Somehow, I didn’t notice he has great batting ratings, especially against lefties, so he’ll be the other half of the DH platoon I’ve been looking for. It’s too bad I disabled two-way players because it’d be nice to have him available as a pitcher in emergencies.
RP – Mike Ruhs
Ruhs is nothing special but he’s cheap and healthy, so he’ll be back next year.
RP – Joe McKinney
McKinney is my favorite kind of reliever. He has all the ratings of an elite starting pitcher, minus the stamina. He dominated for the second straight season and will be back again next year.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan had an FIP of 1.98 and made his first all-star team, but somehow received zero reliever of the year votes. I really don’t see how this is possible since he’s probably the most feared pitcher in all of baseball. He strikes out half the batters he faces, and 60% of those that put the ball in play are hitting it on the ground to the Vega/Sanchez death wall. The voters need to show him some more respect next year.
RP – Glen Alcorn
I took a flier on Alcorn despite his history of back injuries and he’s paid off in a big way. He had an FIP of 1.86 and won the reliever of the year award. He wants to be a starter but there’s no way he’d survive a full season with his health issues.
Replacements
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer was whitewashing AA early in the year, so I had no choice but to call him up. He pitched great in his 21 starts in the majors and might’ve given me a clean top five in the Cy Young voting if he pitched a full season.
Season Results:
We continued to put a stranglehold on the division, building a 20-game lead by the halfway point, then cruising the rest of the way. We locked up first place with 22 games remaining, making that our seventh division crown in nine years.
This year wasn’t about the regular season though. We’ve had multiple disappointing early round playoff exits the last few years and I’m hoping to break through and win our second title. We doubled down on pitching and defense and made sure to keep everyone as fresh as possible during the regular season.
Our injury prevention plan went great for the most part. We had zero pitchers and only two batters spend time on the IL, and one of those batters was a 34-year-old. Unfortunately, one of the batters to miss extended time was the one guy I could least afford to lose. Luis Godoy sprained his thumb in early September and was out through the first round of the playoffs. What luck.
Startzel started at RF in place of Godoy to start the playoffs, and Hudson moved up to the number three spot in the lineup. I’m not crazy about either of these options, but it’s the best we’ve got. We went with a playoff rotation of MacDonald, Palacios, Dibartolo, and Schaffer, and moved Sheppard and Kelsey to the bullpen. Justus and Bacon were left off the playoff roster.
Our first-round matchup was against the 90-72 Rockies. Their only real player of note was Steve Delaney, but he looks like the kind of guy that can swing a series. Then their offense was balanced and deep, with most players having 55+ home run power. We have more talent, but anything can happen at Coors..
Divisional Series Game 1, Slammers Win 4-2 – We started off strong in game one, getting a combined 15 Ks over nine innings from MacDonald, Noonan, and Alcorn. Then Flakes led the way on offense with 3 RBIs. The game was tied most of the way until his go ahead single in the bottom of the eighth.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 9-2 – The pitching staff put together another great outing in game two, with Palacios, Alcorn, and Sheppard combining for 15 Ks over nine innings. Flakes led the way on offense with another 3 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 5-2 – I was worried their offense would come to life at Coors but we were able to keep them at bay and win our third straight game. This time it was Dibartolo, Noonan, and McKinney combining for a dominant pitching performance, with 13 Ks over nine innings. Everyone chipped in on offense to produce five runs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Rockies Win 8-7 (12) – I knew it was bound to happen at some point and it finally did – the Rockies offense came to life. Alcorn and McKinney both blew save opportunities and Ibarra gave up a walk-off homer in the bottom of the twelfth. Flakes continued his hot series with another 4 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Rockies Win 5-1 – The Rockies continued their offensive surge, taking MacDonald deep three times in four innings. Then Delaney gave them six innings of one run ball. The Rockies have momentum but we’re heading back home with the Cy Young winner scheduled to start game six. I think we’ll be fine.
Divisional Series Game 6, Slammers Win 8-2 – Palacios gave up a two-run shot in the first, then him, Ryan, and Kelsey combined for 13 Ks and 0 ER the rest of the way. Flakes was hot again, launching two three-run homers.
I was worried our offense would stall out without Godoy, but Flakes put the team on his back, winning series MVP behind his 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. We held serve at home and stole one on the road, with our pitching dominating in each of the wins. Godoy is set to return for game one of the NLCS, so I like our odds the rest of the way.
Our next opponent is the 100-62 Nationals. They have the second-best record in baseball and a very talented team. Their offense is led by MVP Doug Bridges and future hall of famer Juan Soto, and the pitching staff features stud starters Clay McAuley and Fabricio Tertlio. This looks like the de facto title series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 7-3 – Godoy made up for lost time in game one, going 3-5 with two homers and 4 RBIs. Then the pitching was solid with great performances from the usual suspects. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 11 Ks and 3 ERs over nine innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 3-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, giving us seven innings and only allowing one run. Then McKinney came in and closed it down with a two inning save. Godoy hit another homer, while Romo and Hines both had run scoring singles.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (14) – Whew, what a game. MacDonald and McAuley both went 6.1 innings and gave up two runs, with the last of those coming in the bottom of the seventh. Then no one scored again until the top of the fourteenth when Sanchez hit a go-ahead solo homer. Noonan, Alcorn, McKinney, and Ibarra combined for 7.2 scoreless innings in relief and Godoy hit another two-run homer.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – This one was over early. We knocked out their starter in the first and cruised the rest of the way. Palacios and Sheppard combined for 9 innings and 2 ERs, and everyone chipped in on offense.
We made a huge statement with this series. The Nationals thought they were on the same level as us, but we eviscerated them. Godoy won series MVP with his four home runs and eight RBIs.
Up next is the 93-69 Red Sox, led by veteran starting pitcher Nate Pearson. They have a deep and balanced team, but nothing that should give us too many issues. We made a key trade with them last year that netted us Alcorn and Ibarra, while sending out Chang-Hyeok Kim. I bet they wish they could undo that one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 3-2 – Game one was a pitching duel between Pearson and Dibartolo, with Dibartolo coming out on top. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 14 Ks and 2 ERs over nine innings. Hopper hit a two-run home run and Godoy continued his hot streak with another solo shot.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 6-2 – The pitching came through again with Schaffer, McKinney, and Ruhs combing for 10 Ks and 2 ERs in nine innings. Things are looking good after two games.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 10-8 – Some people say a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, so maybe we’re still waiting for this one to kick off. The Red Sox roughed up our pitchers and we lost a shootout late.
World Series Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – The pitching got back on track in game four with Palacios and Ryan teaming up to allow 2 ERs over nine innings. Flakes had four hits and Bernal drove in three runs.
World Series Game 5, Red Sox Win 7-5 – Godoy had a huge game, going 3-3 with 2 home runs, a triple, 2 walks, 4 RBIs, and 2 runs scored, but it wasn’t enough for the victory. The Red Sox got to Dibartolo early and we could never climb back. We’re heading back home and looking to close out the series in game six.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 11-4 – We scored early and often and took game six in convincing fashion. Godoy provided another 3 RBIs and Schaffer did enough to win. Noonan and Kelsey closed out the last three innings.
After five long years we’re World Series champs once again! Godoy had another huge series and won World Series MVP, capping off an amazing postseason run (seriously, check this out).
This wasn’t as action packed as our 2027 title run, but I enjoyed it just as much. It was very satisfying watching our pitching and defense squeeze the life out of teams. We had a team ERA of 3.32 over 16 games, which is pretty impressive considering we were playing the best teams in the league. The starters were all excellent and the bullpen was lights out. I bet other teams got tired of seeing “Slammers SP – 6.2 IP, 2 ER; Slammers RP 1 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, Slammers RP 2 – 1 IP 0 ER.” It was like clockwork.
Noonan, Alcorn, and McKinney were particularly impressive. Noonan had an FIP of 0.62 in seven appearances and struck out 23 of the 43 batters he faced. McKinney had an FIP of 0.95 in 9.2 innings and only allowed 6 baserunners. Then Alcorn allowed zero runs in five of his seven appearances. I don’t think I would swap these guys for any other relievers in the league.
From everything I’ve written above, it’s pretty obvious that we won this championship with pitching and defense, so I think it’s worth mentioning Vega’s contract again. $50m for 4.6 WAR is terrible value but it’s not always about that. It’s about getting the right players for your team, regardless of how valuable their contracts are. It’s really easy to get caught up in trying to win the $/WAR game, but they don’t give out championships for that – they only give out World Series titles.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Also, I usually don’t mention minor league records since I don’t think they’re overly important, but we had all of our minor league teams finish with a winning record this season. Good job everyone!
Top Prospects:
We’ve turned in to a starting pitching factory. I can’t get guys to free agency quick enough to make room for the new guys coming up. This is a good problem to have, but I wish I could do as well with developing batters. It just seems so much harder to identify top position players outside of the top ten in the draft, and I can’t develop them as well either. Either way though, the farm is in great shape and should continue to be for years to come.
1.) Eddie Copping
Copping might not have the highest upside on the list but he’s the safest bet to make the majors. He had a great year in AA, winning pitcher of the year, and his ratings are pretty much major league ready. He’ll probably start next year at AAA since I have a logjam of starting pitchers.
2.) Chris Dearborn
Dearborn has great character, durability, and ratings across the board. He had a good year in A- and will contend for Cy Young awards one day if he reaches his full potential.
3.) Alex Rivera
Rivera’s offensive potential has regressed since last year, but his defensive ratings improved. He struggled in A, so will repeat the level next year. Hopefully, I didn’t cause any permanent damage to his development by promoting him too early.
4.) Jose Gutierrez
Gutierrez had a monster year in rookie ball and saw his ratings progress nicely since last season. If his catcher ability can make it to 65-70, he’ll be my starting catcher one day.
5.) Chris Brown
Brown was my first-round selection in this year’s draft. He has below average stamina and hold runners, but all of his other potential ratings are elite. He performed well in rookie ball, but I might give him another year there to improve his control.
6.) Chris Larkin
Larkin continued his steady ascent through the system, posting a good year in A+ and seeing his ratings improve since last season. He’ll start next year in AA and should be ready for the majors sooner than later.
7.) Edwin Mireles
Mireles had a solid year in A+ but missed a lot of time to injury. He’ll start next season in AA, but I won’t hesitate to trade him if the right deal comes along.
Here are his ratings from last season.
8.) Bobby Butler
I still don’t trust Butler and his normal injury proneness, but his talent is undeniable. His ratings have improved across the board since last season and he looks ready for promotion to AA. Like Mireles, I’ll trade him if the right deal comes along.
9.) Luis Arguello
If you’ve been paying close attention, you might’ve noticed Arguello is the fourth starting pitcher in the top nine from the 2030 draft. He doesn’t have the same upside as the other guys but he’s a pretty safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter, and if his movement improves, he could be elite. He’ll start next season at A+.
10.) Josh McBride
McBride’s skills have rounded out since last year and he looks ready for the majors. I doubt he’ll ever be a star, but there’s definitely value in a guy that can competently play eight positions.
Honorable mentions:
Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger looks like the real deal but I’m always skeptical of guys with normal injury proneness and no positive character attributes. He’ll start next season at A, and we’ll find out more about him there.
Omar Taborda
I would’ve been foaming at the mouth to get Taborda in the starting lineup a few years ago but Vega and Sanchez have the middle infield on lock for the next several seasons. He might replace Monzon as the utility infielder next year, but it probably makes more sense to trade him while his value is highest.
Steve Flores
Flores made the list two years ago due to a lack of better options, but I think he’s a legitimate prospect now. He might not ever bat his weight, but he could be one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. I’m hoping his high character allows his offensive skills to improve the next few years.
Ray Zaragoza
I had every intention of trading Zaragoza after his season ending injury last year but there really wasn’t much interest in him. Unfortunately, he suffered another season ending injury in his first game back this year, so I doubt there will be any more interest in him now. I think I’m going to force start him as a reliever so he has a chance to make the majors in some capacity.
Promoted to MLB:
Andy Schaffer
Dropped from list:
Josh Boston
So, a low character guy is fizzling out, guess I shouldn’t be too surprised. Here are his ratings from last year.
Future Outlook:
We’re in amazing position going forward. We just won the World Series, have the top four Cy Young award vote getters, have the ability to bring back everyone, and could probably even bring in another MVP caliber player. Then for good measure, we also have a great farm system. The rest of division is looking up in awe.
So, where do we go from here? It’s really fun racking up championships but it can get kind of boring after a while. I know I don’t have enough titles to be complaining about boredom yet, but we look like we’re trending in that direction. I’m thinking about making some league wide adjustments to shake things up. Here are the changes I’m considering this offseason:
1.) Re-align the Divisions
I loved the rivalry with the Braves when I first started the franchise, but we’ve kind of got our foot on their necks at the moment, and I don’t see them getting back up anytime soon. We’ve established such a strong position in the division it’s almost impossible for them to make the playoffs, and with every passing year their fan interest/loyalty gets worse and the gap between us and them only grows larger. The Cardinals are in a similar situation, and the Marlins might as well be a minor league team.
I’m thinking about re-aligning the divisions based on winning percentages from the last twelve years, putting the top four teams in one division, the next four teams in another, and so on. This would give teams like the Marlins a chance to make the playoffs and make it where teams like ours can’t put a long-term strangle hold on a division. I could re-align every ten years or so to make sure no one gets too strong of a position.
2.) Expand the Playoffs
This is the simplest change I could make but the one I like least. We currently have 32 teams in the league and eight of them make the playoffs, so it really feels like an accomplishment to make it and the playoff bracket sets up perfectly. If we added two wildcards to each division, we’d need to give two teams in each conference a bye, which isn’t somethings I’m crazy about doing. Then if we added four wildcards, or let the top two from each division qualify, it would really diminish the regular season. I seriously doubt I go this route.
3.) Eliminate Divisions
This is an appealing option, but I’ve had issues with it in the past. Basically, it becomes too easy to make the playoffs because you don’t have to worry about a juggernaut appearing in your division. If there’s a 110-win team in the league, who cares, you’ll still make the playoffs with 100 wins, so you can really let off the gas during the regular season. I might give it another try though.
4.) Expand the League
This is mostly a temporary solution, but it could make things more difficult in the short term. I have way too many players to protect in an expansion draft, so would definitely lose some depth. I might do this along with re-alignment, but it’s not a permanent balancing solution.
5.) Add Promotion and Relegation
I think this is the best route to giving everyone a chance at winning but it would require some pretty radical changes to the league. Here are some of the things I would have to figure out: Who starts out in the lower league? Do I introduce expansion teams at the same time? How many teams make the playoffs? How many teams are promoted/relegated each year? How do I do the financials? Then there are probably another thirty things I haven’t thought of yet. This is probably what I should do, but I don’t know if I’m ready to make that leap yet.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.
submitted by ZenMasta61 to OOTP [link] [comments]

Pick'em 7.23

Sorry for the late one boys, life ya know

ANYWAYS

I think it was a good day, most of the top favorites won (or were postponed).
Hopefully your streak is still going! I put my money on the tribe today and I was rewarded. Good news about this post, there are a lot of safe picks IMO, many aces are starting... So if you need 1-2 more wins for some rewards you should feel good about today.

Also, I am going to bold the games I want you guys to pay close attention to, I'm not sure why 538 has certain percentages they do on games... But I think there are stronger favorites tomorrow than the top one they picked.

Lets get down to it!

1.) Baltimore (31-67) @ Arizona (50-50)
538 has this game as a 68% chance for the Diamondbacks, and honestly dudes I can't tell you why. Kelly (7-9 with a 3.77) is facing off against Bundy (4-11 with a 5.28). I don't get it... If I were you I would keep reading down, but according to 538 this battle between these two inconsistent pitchers is the top favorite. Vegas is at -170 on them.

2.) Kansas City (37-64) @ Atlanta (60-41)
In my opinion I think this is a better pick than the previous. We have Keuchel (3-3 with a 3.58) against Duffy (4-5 4.52). Favorite at home, with a talented pitcher on the mound... Sounds good to me. I have seen the Braves be inconsistent at times, so tread lightly here. Vegas has them at -210 and 538 is at 66% on them.

3.) Phillies (52-48) @ Tigers (30-65)
ACE ALERT. We have Nola on the mound for the phillies, who is typically pretty good. He is throwing a 3.77 ERA right now, but the tigers pitcher (Boyd at 4.13) is worse. I like the phillies here, but Boyd can be good at times. This one could come down to whomever has the better game on the mound, which somewhat scares me. 538 is philly at 62% and vegas is at -140

4.) Angels (52-49) @ Dodgers (67-35)
I don't like rivalry games... People may say "thEy AreNt RiValS"... But they kind of are. Maeda (7-6 with a 3.71) faces off against Pena (7-3 with a 4.92). This game could be a crap shoot. It is at Dodgers stadium so there is some silver lining, but I get burned by the Dodgers so I'm staying away. 538 is at 62% on the Dodgers and the Vegas line is -150

5.) Rockies (47-52) @ Washington (52-46)
I will be going here with my pick tomorrow. Strausburg is on the mound for the Nats tomorrow (12-4 and a 3.52) and he is facing off against Lambert (2-1 6+ ERA). The first game was postponed and there is a chance this one is also (free win). Washington has been pretty good since the break, so I'll probably be here unless something better comes along. 538 is at 61% and Vegas is at -150

6.) TRIBE (58-41) @ Blue Jays (38-64)
Change my mind. I'm sticking strong with my tribe. One of you is a tribe fan and told me that he always picks when there's BBC on the mound (Bieber-Bauer-Cleaver). Well dudes, Bauer is on the mound facing off against Sanchez (3-14 with a 6.26). 6.26 ERA over 100+ innings, sign me up here. This looks like a good option on paper. 538 has the tribe at 61% and Vegas is at -170.

7.) Reds (45-53) @ Brewers (53-49)
ACE ALERT. Davies is on the mound for the Brewers and is throwing a 2.79 while having a record of 8-2. He will be at home facing off against Roark (5-6 3.97 ERA). The Brewers are ok at home, and they do have an ace on the mound... But these Reds are a more talented team than what their record shows IMO. I think the Brewers are safe but I'm staying away. 538 is at 58% brewers and Vegas is at -135

8.) A's (57-44) @ Astros (65-37)
The A's got WORKED today. Bailey look terrible, and the Astros has two consecutive bat around innings. OOF. Astros have Miley on the mound (8-4 with a 3.25) and the A's have Fiers (9-3 with a 3.64). A's have been hot lately, and I don't want to pick against them after losing that bad... But they are away in Houston. I'd stay away. 538 is at 55% and Vegas is at -150

9.) Boston (55-46) @ Toronto (57-46)
I don't feel like typing much on this one. The inconsistent Sale is on the mound and Chirinos is on for the Rays. I recommend not going here, and my wounds from Boston are still fresh. Boston has Vegas at -160 and 538 54%

10.) Marlins (36-62) @ White Sox (45-52)
The match-up here is pretty even... Smith and Covey, two guys you don't know of unless you are a fan of either team face off in this epic showdown of mediocrity. That was kind of rude, but if you read all of these and have made it this far I feel the need to keep you entertained... So pick elsewhere. White Sox are at 53% and Vegas is at -130 in favor of Miami.

11.) Yankees (64-35) @ Twins (61-38)
Two good teams with the slighty better one playing away. We have German vs Gibson on the mound, and this one is going to be close unless one of them completely just gets up there and throws gas. I don't like gas throwers. 538 has the Yanks at 53% and Vegas is -115 for them as well

12.) Rangers (50-49) @ Seattle (40-62)
Good ole'faithful aka undecided is on the mound for the home squad, and he'll be facing off against Payano who has 1 inning pitched under his belt this season. Do I need to type any more here? 538 has Seattle at 53% and Vegas says "nah im good"

13.) Padres (47-52) @ Mets (45-54)
This one could be interesting, Paddack faces off against Vargas. Paddack has shown signs of promise, but for the same reason I don't take Soraka from the Braves, I won't suggest taking Paddack either. He's young. Consistency is what separates these guys and we don't know if he is going to show up tomorrow. Vargas is terrible though, but the Mets are at home. Should be close. 538 has the Mets at 52% and Vegas is at -130 for San Diego

14.) Cards (52-47) @ Pirates (46-53)
Stay away from here. Two talented and super inconsistent pitchers on the mound for both teams (Hudson and Archer). You have better odds elsewhere. 538 is at 51% for the Pirates and Vegas is at -130

15.) Cubs (54-46) @ Giants (51-50)
FAIR DISCLAIMER: I will be in attendance, which means the Giants are 100% going to lose. I have been to 5 Giants games and they have lost all 5 of them. Darvish vs Mad Bum, it will be fun to watch... But not if your streak depends on it. Cubs area 51% favorite with Vegas putting the Giants at -110.

Special shout out to u/Drunner17 for giving me some inside stats, dude has been a major help.



There you have it boys, I hope you keep that streak up. As always,
Let me know where you are at and any inside info you have tomorrow!
<3
submitted by Kylester91 to MLB_9Innings [link] [comments]

Enough is enough. Pick’em week 7.18

Friends,
Tonight as I sat on my couch, rage mounting as I watched the most over rated and over paid baseball player in the MLB hit a walk off against the best team in baseball...
I had an epiphany.
In between my drunken cuss words and insults hurled at the crimson chin for ruining my streak, I realized I have this sub.
Nay
I realized WE have this sub.
I often lie awake at night, tears running down my face, wondering what my gold sig trout would look like. Why do I subject myself to this? God knows, and therefore so do I. For I am the alpha, and the omega. These are my feelings the night before my picks.
I read all of your comments “iM pIcKiNg ThE rAnGERz CaUsE oF LanCE LyNn”. I laughed at all of you and I picked the Astros. I saw all of you claiming the Jays might beat the Sox. HA You morons and your streaks, I am above that.
But now, I want to know what it’s like. I want to wake up to the sight of COLLECT REWARDS. For I have no windows in my mother’s basement, and it is a good substitute for sunshine.
So I say to you, tired, hungry, frustrated, and proud. Come join me. Let us walk the path of the streak together. Let us get our golds to diamonds. In the words of the great Will Ferrell, “WERE GOING STREAKING”
I will be posting the Vegas odds every night, and giving my opinion on the matchups. I would appreciate help from those of you who have had the 15 streak, and when you post if you could post the longest streak you have that would be great. Let’s do this.
Feel free to comment about each game, I’ll be posting comments in here pertaining to each game
1.) Giants (45-49) @ Rockies (46-48)
I’m staying away from this one. The giants are so hot right now, but everything that goes up must come down. Colorado is a -170 money line.
2.) Mets (42-51) @ Twins (58-34)
Twins are a good pick here. Perez is 8-3 and is pitching at home. Twins are at -160 on the money line
3.) Pirates (45-49) @ Cardinals (47-46)
Not sure about this one either, it’s a -170 towards St Louis but Archer is talented, if he has a good game I doubt they lose. StL’ pitcher has thrown 30 innings as of now. I’m out
4.) Braves (58-37) @ Brewers (48-47)
Its Keuchel vs Anderson. Two talented pitchers in my opinion. Unless there is a clear favorite for a team, I don't pick matchups between two decent pitchers. You'll find better odds elsewhere IMO. Even odds
5.) Reds (43-48) @ Cubs (50-44)
Gray vs Darvish. Like I said above, I tend to stay away from pitching duels. These guys are definitely under-performing this season, but I'm not putting my streak on it. Cubs are at -130
6.)Mariners (39-58) @ A's (53-41)
I like this one. Oakland is pitching with Bailey, and they are hot right now. Seattle has yet to announce their starter AND they are on a 5 game losing streak (if they lose tonight). I'm probably placing my streak on Oakland tonight.
7.) Rays (56-41) @ Yankees (60-33)
Both of these teams are good. German is going tomorrow for NY and Chirinos is going for Tampa. Both pitchers have great stats and bats behind them. There are better odds out there. New York @ -150
8.) Dodgers (63-34) @ Phillies (49-46)
I'm done with the dodgers. Go ahead and place your streak on them if you want. The best team in baseball takes Madea to face off against someone (who cares its the Phillies). Dodgers are -150
9.) Nationals (50-43) @ Baltimore (28-66)
Baltimore sucks. But the Nats do sometimes as well. The pitchers aren't great (Fedde vs Brooks). They are pretty close in terms of stats, but if you feel Washington is going to pull this one off go for it. Based on record alone this seems like a better option than some others out there. Washington comes in as a high favorite -185
10.) Tigers (29-61) @ Indians (53-40)
Doesn't look like they have posted the pitchers yet, Tigers are a bad team. Indians just threw a combined 1 hitter against them and I don't see them beating the Indians. The Tigers are the biggest underdogs (according to Vegas) of any other team today with the Indians at -260.
11.) Blue Jays (36-60) @ Boston (51-44)
I mean they can't lost twice right? There is no way the Jays beat Boston in Boston two games in a row. But they did do it once. Sanchez vs Rodriguez (who is 10-4) face off. Boston comes in at -250
12.)Padres (45-49) @ Miami (35-57)
The padres are ok, they are in Miami. Paddack goes against Richards, two similarly talented pitchers IMO and Sd has the better bats. There are probably better options out there. San Diego at -155
13.) Arizona (48-47) @ Rangers (50-45)
This is a close one. I think Texas is the better team but Ray is the better starting pitcher. Could go either way or down to a single play. Again, Im staying away from here. Arizona -120
14.) White Sox (42-49) @ Royals (34-62)
Nova is going against Duffy in this one. Statistically speaking Nova is having a better season, but is also because he has pitched more. Chicago looks to be the favorite. Not a big enough one however for me to pick them. KC is actually the favorite here from Vegas at -120
15.) Astros (59-36) @ Angels (49-46)
Angels don't have Trout. The best player in baseball is out. Cole is also pitching for the Astros, and has been very good recently. I like the Astros in this one despite them playing away. Not to mention it looks like the Angels still haven't declared who is pitching tomorrow. I'm between these guys and Oakland.
submitted by Kylester91 to MLB_9Innings [link] [comments]

bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 9, 2019 (MLB)

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
With that being said, let’s get into it!
Early Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Indians vs Tigers - 110pm
Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 205pm
Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Corey Kluber (9400, RHP) at DET - Wow. What a steal for Kluber. I know his first 2 starts haven’t exactly lit the world on fire, but, honestly, do yourself a favor and look through ALL the game notes right now (if you know baseball). Take a look at all of those ace pitchers, and the numbers they are putting up. Kluber is not alone in his futility so far on the season. But it doesn’t matter. Like I noted about Verlander yesterday, all this does is lower this price and make people less likely to play him. He is going against a bad Detroit team. I would expect him to get back to the 7 IP, 7-8 K, with almost no hits, runs, or walks. At that price, given his immense talent, I don’t know how you don’t go all in on Kluber on this 3 game slate. You can even pair him with another good pitcher and still fit in some good bats.
Charlie Morton (9000, RHP) at CWS - Morton is a great pitcher, and I think he’s going to fly under the radar a lot because he moved to TB. But he is still going to get a ton of strikeouts, and be able to limit runs and baserunners. While I wish he were more of a sure thing to get to 100 pitches, he is easily one of my favorite pitchers on this short slate.
Great Pitcher???
Chris Sale (10700, LHP) vs TOR - Ah. I’m sure among people that pay really, really close attention to baseball there’s a debate brewing. Has Sale lost it? I have talked so many times now about the metaphorical cliff that a lot of pitchers fall off - where they are cy young starters one season and, as quickly as the next spring, are barely functional major leaguers. While this may seem like some kind of exaggeration, the worry is real after Sale posted the lowest Velocity of his career last start.. He only got 1 K and never got over 90 mph?? He only got 5 swinging strikes in 87 pitches? He has thrown 59 fastballs this season and gotten ZERO swings and misses?? That should concern anyone, as far as I’m concerned. But Should It??, The Boston Globe asked. Pitching coach Dana LeVangie said that Sale was throwing slower by design - he was basically just building himself up (which you can see he does every season). Former all-star Brad Lidge said that was bullshit, though, arguing the Sox have reason to be concerned. All in all, I don’t know about you, but I am still fine taking the chance on Sale. Odds are I won’t. And if I only play one lineup, I probably will not play him. But uncertainty lowers ownership and price and you could get Sale for far too cheap and low owned, especially on a 3 game slate. This one is going to come down to how much risk you want for the price.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Indians vs Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, @DET) - Just like a lot of really good pitchers have started out the year badly, a lot of really terrible pitchers have started out the year looking like Cy Young candidates. His first game was against a Blue Jays team, on Opening Day, that started out the season on a run of making bad pitchers look like aces. His 2nd start, though, against the Yankees was more impressive. But, if you look, Zim is someone that always starts the year off hot. He always gets worse, and I expect him to do so. Granted, you could easily play Zim in GPPs on a 3 game slate especially given how bad this Indians team has looked. But I think Zim is bad enough, I would rather take a chance on a stack then take a chance on him at 8100. Yuck.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players : Start with Ramirez (3B - 5100) then go to the top and work your way down.
Red Sox vs Matt Shoemaker (RHP, TOR) - I mean, again, on a 3 game slate you can take a chance on Shoemaker, who has been as hot as fire lately. He has had 2 starts. In both of them, he went 7 IP, only allowed 2 hits, and struck out 7 and 8 batters. But when you look closer, he did it against the hapless Tigers and an Orioles team who never had a hap to begin with. On a 3 game slate, you can take a chance here as a deep GPP play, but Shoemaker is going against a Red Sox that should be able to absolutely punish him. Especially considering he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred
Preferred Players: Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4800), Betts (OF - 5300), Nunez (2B/3B - 4200), Vazquez (C - 3700), then start at the top
Ervin Santana (6200, RHP) vs TB - Santana hasn’t been very good for awhile. I mean he was never a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but he was good. Now he isn’t. He only got 5 starts last year due to injury. Now he’s 35 and, unless you are taking the cream, 35 year olds don’t suddenly get better and less injury prone. I think Santana is going to be SUPER popular today given how cheap he is, and how high some projections have him. I think that’s a huge mistake.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Meadows (OF - 4200), Pham (OF - 4700), Yandy Diaz (1B/3B - 3900), Lowe (2B - 4500), Kiermaier (OF - 4100), Choi (1B - 4200), then whoever else starts
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: I think both JD Martinez and Bogaerts go deep. But I will choose Martinez as the most likely.
Today’s Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
A’s vs Orioles - 705pm
  • Brett Anderson, LHP - 2-0, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6 BB, 7 K
  • John Means, LHP - 1-0, 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2 BB, 9 K
  • Vegas Info: 9.5, OAK -151
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing across the field at 13 mph.
Nationals vs Phillies - 705pm
  • Stephen Strasburg, RHP - 1-0, 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3 BB, 17 K
  • Aaron Nola, RHP - 1-0, 9.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7 BB, 10 K
  • Vegas Info: 7.5, PHI -132
  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds swirling at 10mph.
Twins vs Mets - 710pm
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP - 0-0, 4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 2 BB, 2 K
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP - 2-0, 13.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2 BB, 24 K
  • Vegas Info: 6.5, NYM -217
  • Weather: Overcast and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds swirling at 8mph.
Dodgers vs Cardinals - 745pm
  • Ross Stripling, RHP - 0-0, 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K
  • Dakota Hudson, RHP - 0-1, 5.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 6 K
  • Vegas Info: 8.5, LAD -135
  • Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing in at 5mph.
Yankees vs Astros - 810pm
  • Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 4 K
  • Gerrit Cole, RHP, 0-2, 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 19 K
  • Vegas Info: 8, HOU -168
  • Weather: DOME
Mariners vs Royals - 815pm
  • Marco Gonzales, LHP - 3-0, 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3 BB, 11 K
  • Jake Junis, RHP - 1-0, 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K
  • Vegas Info: 9, SEA -118
  • Weather: Clear and Warm. Tems around 70. Winds blowing across the field at 9mph.
Braves vs Rockies - 840pm
  • Max Fried, LHP - 1-0, 7.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.39 WHIP, 2 BB, 5 K
  • German Marquez, RHP - 1-0, 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 6 BB, 14 K
  • Vegas Info: 11, COL -133
  • Weather: COORS FIELD GAME Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out to RF at 9mph.
Rangers vs Dbacks - 940pm
  • Mike Minor, LHP - 1-1, 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4 BB, 10 K
  • Zack Greinke, RHP - 1-1, 9.2 IP, 9.31 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K
  • Vegas Info: 8, ARI -136
  • Weather: DOME
Padres vs Giants - 945pm
  • Joey Lucchesi, LHP - 2-0, 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3 BB, 13 K
  • Derek Holland, LHP - 0-1, 9.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6 BB, 12 K
  • Vegas Info: 7.5, Pick Em
  • Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the low 60s. Winds blowing out at 18mph. Wow! SF built the park to minimize the effects of wind, though, so it doesn’t matter as much as you would think.
Brewers vs Angels - 1007pm
  • Freddy Peralta, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K
  • Matt Harvey, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K
  • Vegas Info: 8.5, Pick Em
  • Weather: Windy and warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing across the field, toward RF, at 18 mph.
Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg (9700, RHP) at PHI - Man, some of the prices for these ace pitchers is crazy. I mean, it’s kind of a relative thing for DK, right? They have one pitcher at 12k because he is far and away the best pitcher in baseball right now. You can’t really put anyone else that close to him, so everyone else is underpriced. Plus, people have to be able to fit in Coors Field bats, leading to some aces really far, far too low. I expect there’s going to be a lot of people paying for Strasburg at this price. And they should. Tomorrow is going to be one of those days where ownership percentages are EXTREMELY important, so I will do my best to get those to you some point in the afternoon in some way. But there are SO many good pitchers at way too cheap that that is ultimately going to have to be the tiebreaker.
Aaron Nola (9400, RHP) vs WAS - Listen, I know neither are as good as deGrom. I know the Nats and Phillies offenses are no joke. But 9700 and 9400 for these two aces is going to make them exceedingly popular today, and for good reason. I would imagine, given the fact the Phillies is currently a better offense and Nola is cheaper, that the ownership will fall largely on Nola. And I don’t know how you don’t get all over him here for 9400. He is going to be in the top 5 for Cy Young again this year, and he is 200 more that Joey Lucchesi? Gimme a fucking break.
Jacob deGrom (11600, RHP) vs MIN - Jake deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Anyone who argues with you about that has literally no legitimate argument and/or no idea what they are talking about. If you don’t know who Bob Gibson is, do yourself a favor and look up some video of Gibson pitching. He is a hall of famer and all time great. Like, some people put him in the Mount Rushmore of pitchers, and you can’t really argue with them. He was so good he forced MLB to lower the mound to remove some of the advantage the pitchers had by being raised. Well, last season by deGrom was arguably the best by a pitcher since Gibson::
  • Since MLB lowered the mound, became 1 of 3 pitchers to have 30+ starts, 210+ IP, and a 1.70 or lower ERA
  • 11th pitcher in the last 100 years (including before they lowered the mound) to have an ERA of 1.70 or below
  • Ended the season with 29 starts allowing 3 runs of fewer, the longest single season streak in MLB HISTORY. He has now broken the multi season record, and sits at 31 and counting. That is the MLB record. Ever. No one had ever done that.
  • The only pitcher in the modern era (since 2000) with a sub 2.00 ERA, 260 or more Ks, 50 or fewer walks, and 10 or fewer HR allowed.
  • His highest ERA for any month was 2.36 in June.
  • Has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 64 of his 139 career starts. No one in ML History had ever done that before. Now he’s up to 66 in 141.
And now he gets a Twins team that won’t have a DH which means no Nelly Cruz. And a batting pitcher. Also, do you know how insane it is for the total of this game to be 6.5 and the Mets to be THAT favored. On top of that, he is trying to break Bob Gibson’s consecutive quality start record. Gibson had 26 which deGrom and no one else has done. With a QS today, deGrom gets to 27. I expect him to do that at far less ownership that he should have.
Gerrit Cole (10500, RHP) vs NYY - Cole is the 2nd best pitcher going today. But he’s still not nearly as good as deGrom and 10 out of 10 times I will find the money to pay up for Jake. That being said, this is a Yankees lineup that has a ton of Ks in it and Cole could get you 14 K today. Considering his K/9 was 12 last season, that just means he has a slightly above average 8 IP.
Zack Greinke (8900, RHP) vs TEX - Greinke is a great pitcher. He can have some really horrible games sometimes, as we saw on Opening Day when he got a stunning -5.2 DKP. But he is one of the smartest people in the game of baseball, and he knows how to bounce back which he did getting 10k in 6 IP, letting him get 27.9 DKP even though he gave up 3 ER. Like I always tell you, Ks are King. While I would rather pay up for deGrom and downgrade a bat or two, or go down from Greinke and upgrade some bats, I would definitely keep him in your MME pool if you play a bunch of lineups.
GPP Plays
John Means (4500, LHP) vs OAK - If you play Means, you should know that you really shouldn’t expect more than 4 IP at an absolute maximum. He has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen so far this year, including 3 days ago. So really, while they may let him get to 80 pitches again (like he did on the 31st), the odds are much, much more likely he gets 40 pitches which should be enough for 3 IP or so. If he’s good and efficient, like I said, 4. But, so far, in his 5.2 IP he has 9 K. That means that, even if he only pitches 3 IP, he could easily pay this price off while also allowing us to get some seriously expensive bats.
Jakob Junis (7200, RHP) vs SEA - Junis isn’t going to win any awards this season, unless they start giving awards for the most fun name to say out loud. And even then, Adalberto Mondesi would probably beat him from this team (unless there’s an alliteration bonus, of course.) Anyway, I digress. Junis isn’t someone I love. But he has had 2 poor starts where he struck out enough people to get 18 DKP. Almost everyone else priced under 9k, with the exception of Means, is someone without any upside whatsoever. So, while he may not be the best play, he is certainly the best mid-to-low priced pitcher that will help you get some of those sweet, sweet bats in.
Joey Lucchesi (9200, LHP) at SF - This is a different kind of GPP play. Normally when I say GPP play it’s someone who kind of sucks but has some upside - someone you can play but you could also stack against. But here, I mean someone who, due to price, will be completely unowned. I mean, you can read what I wrote when I was talking about Nola. Lucchesi is going to be one of the lowest owned pitchers on this slate, certainly one of the lowest actually good pitchers. So far in 10.1 IP this season he has only given up 7 hits with 13 K and 0 ER. He is going against a fucking awful SF Offense that he already got 27 DKP against. So if you want a great GPP pivot to someone no one will own but is actually completely fairly priced here, run with Lucchesi. I will sure as hell have some of him across my lineups.
Freddy Peralta (9900, RHP) at LAA - This is both kinds of GPP plays! It’s both someone who is kind of bad but with amazing upside who could give you a negative score or 40 DKP and also someone who won’t be owned at all due to price. And sure, there are some batters on this Angels team that will give him fits, but you can’t deny his upside, and you can’t deny no one will be on him.
No Thanks
Brett Anderson (8000, LHP) at BAL - Brett Anderson isn’t nearly as bad as Marco Estrada, so I don’t expect to have much, if any, interest in Baltimore today. He also is hilariously overpriced for someone who doesn’t strike people out. So yeah. No thanks.
Ross Stripling (9100, RHP) at STL - Stripling is a fine pitcher. He limits baserunners, generally. He keeps the ball on the ground, for the most part. But he doesn’t seem to strike that many people out when he’s starting. And, when he’s 300 less than Aaron Nola, you really have no reason to play him. No reason at all.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Mets vs Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) - I think this may be the first time I’ve gotten to use the Mets as a stack. They have played a lot of games against a lot of good pitchers so far, so it’s nice to see them have such a good record, and to get a chance against Kyle Gibson, who is not good. In his first, he couldn’t make it out of the 4th inning, surrendering 5 ER on 8 hits and 2 BB and only 2 K. Oh boy. He is also a normal splits pitcher, and the Mets have plenty of LH power.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Conforto (OF - 4300), Cano (2B - 3900), Alonso (1B - 4100), Nimmo (OF - 3900), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Ramos (C - 3800), Rosario (SS - 4000).
Dodgers vs Dakota Hudson (RHP, @STL) - As I wrote in my preview, Hudson profiles as an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a perplexing first start, though, where his sinking stuff wasn’t working. He wound up going only 4.1 innings, giving up 3 HR and 3 ER on 7 hits. He still struck out 6, making his effort serviceable. But this is a Dodgers team that’s been hitting lights out. And Hudson probably won’t make it 5 innings, even if he pitches well.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down
Astros vs Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP, NYY) - Loaisiga, apart from having a name that’s impossible for a dyslexic to get right, is someone pitching on a limited count that has trouble finding the plate. Against an Astros team that is very patient at the plate, I don’t expect this to go too well for him. The one big negative I have here is the Yankees have, far and away, the best bullpen in baseball. So even if the get to the SP, it’s not like they have dessert up next.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Start with Brantley (OF - 4000) first, given the SPs splits, then start at the top and work your way down
Royals vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) - If you are 70+ years old and a voter for the BBWAA, you probably have 3-0 Marco Gonzalez as your front runner for the Cy Young this season. But let’s be real here - He’s had 2 games of incredible run support where he could have easily lost and 1 game where he struck out 3 in 8.1 IP but managed to have a lot of balls find a lot of fielders. Let’s see how this extreme splits pitcher does against the lefty mashing Royals
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4400), Mondesi (SS - 4800), Soler (OF - 3900), Schwindel (1B - 3800), Owings (2B/3B - 3800), Maldonado (C - 2900)
Rockies vs Max Fried (LHP, ATL) - Oh man. I love the Mets, but this stack takes the cake. If you read my analysis from yesterday, I linked an awesome article about how different pitches are affected by Coors Field. Long story short, sliders good, curveballs and changeups bad. Well Fried is a 3 pitch pitcher, a 4 seamer he throws 60% of the time. It has a slight sink to it, but that will be muted by Coors Field as well. He then has a curveball he throws 30% of the time. It’s a massive, beautiful, sweeping curve that won’t work at Coors. His 3rd pitch is a changeup he throws the rest of the time (10% or so). Uh oh. I hope he can live off of 1 pitch. And I hope he doesn’t mind that Arenado and Story are 2 of the best hitters against LHP in the MLB.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start with Story (SS - 5100) and Arenado (3B - 5300), who are both underpriced, and then work your way from the top. Blackmon is a great way to separate yourself, and he does fine against LHP. Desmond (OF - 4300) and Reynolds (1B - 4200) also destroy LHP
Braves vs German Marquez (RHP, @COL) - If you pay attention to a lot of baseball/DFS analysts, people just don’t grasp how significant splits are. Not just hitter splits, but a bunch of other splits too. For example, you can see if someone is better at home or away, or in the first half or 2nd half. We can see that Marquez is someone who can be crushed by LHB and is really bad at home. Oh boy do I have some bad news for Marquez when he looks at this lineup and where he is right now.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP preferred
Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 5100), Inciarte (OF - 4300), Markakis (OF - 4000), Albies (2B - 4700) then anyone else. Everyone is way too cheap for COL
Dbacks vs Mike Minor (LHP, TEX) - As I have noted several times now, Mike Minor is not a good pitcher. Sure he had an inexplicable incredible game against the Astros last time up, getting almost 30 DKP on 7 IP. But before that, on opening day, he had -0.3 DKP against the Cubs, giving up 6 ER in 4.2 IP. I would expect more of the Cubs performance against this Dbacks team that can really destroy LHB as well.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 5
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Jones (OF - 4000), Marte (2B/OF - 4200), Flores (1B/2B - 4300), Walker (1B - 4200), Ahmed (SS - 4000), Murphy (C - 3400), Peralta (OF - 4300)
Padres vs Derek Holland (LHP, @SF) - Derek Holland is another bad major league pitcher who has had a couple decent games to start off the year. That doesn’t mean I’m going to fall to recency bias, though. I know who Holland is. And I can also this Padres lineup and see how absolutely disgusting they are against LHP. Like, one of the best in the game. And no one is on them. Good for us! Also look at how cheap they are. Double bonus!
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: I would prioritize people thusly - Machado (3B - 4400), Reyes (OF - 4100), Myers (OF - 4300), Renfroe (OF - 4300), Tatis (SS - 4000), Hedges (C - 3700), then anyone else
Brewers vs Matt Harvey (6000, RHP) - Matt Harvey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball now and we should jump to stack against him anytime we can, especially with LHB. Period. Sometimes it is that simple.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred
Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4200), Grandal (C - 4200), Thames (1B/OF - 4300), then whoever else. But those are the most important plays
One-Off Batters
Paul DeJong (SS - 3900) - Like with Mancini yesterday, when you have a reverse splits pitcher going against a hitter with extreme reverse splits, and it lines up, you have a stew goin’ baby!!! That’s DeJong today. He is going to have a very good today. I also love Goldie (1B - 4600), but SS is a much thinner position and DeJong is so cheap for a 3 hitter.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Michael Conforto
Ahh. it’s 3am. Plenty of time to get started on an 11 game slate for the NBA where everyone is going to be resting. Sigh. Best of luck today all!!!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]

WTF IS GOING ON TODAY PICK EM

Like the title says
what in the absolute F%^* is happening. As of now, the Dodgers (can't say im surprised), Diamondbacks, and Angels lost. The biggest 3 favorites lost to 3 teams that I don't even care to sometimes do a write up for.
Good news, is chances are a day like today won't happen again for a long time. RIP alot of streaks including mine.

Guys, we are running out of time. Lets do this, I'm going to go back to the original way I did these posts, as I got a lot farther with them than I did from just listening to Vegas/538.

TIME TO GO STREAKING AGAIN

My favorite picks in order are as follows

1.) Tigers (30-71) @ Angels (55-52)
I like this one because of who the Tigers have on the mound. VerHagen has pitched 10 innings this year and is 1-1 with a 14 ERA. Dude does not last long in games. He'll be facing off against Canning who is 3-6 with a 5.15 ERA. I don't like either pitcher here, but if it comes down to a slugfest I'm picking the Angels everyday. I also doubt the Angels drop 2 at home to the Tigers.

2.) Dodgers (69-39) @ Colorado (50-57)
I love Kyle Freeland, everytime he is on the mound I get a free game for my streak... Well here he is facing off against the Dodgers who just got spanked by the Rockies. I think he is good for giving up 3-5 runs. The Dodgers have Urias on the mound who is 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA which is no joke. I don't ever feel safe taking the Dodgers, but I don't see them losing this game.

3.) Diamondbacks (53-54) @ Yankees (67-38)
Happ is at home, but looking at the #'s he is better away statistically. The Diamondbacks have been playing like crap. Terrible these last couple of games. They bring Clarke who is 3-3 with a 6.10 ERA to face off against Happ who is 8-5 with a 5.23. I don't like this game, I could see the Yankees losing if the Diamondbacks surge back. But who knows.

4.) Brewers (56-51) @ A's (60-47)
I like Oakland lately, and I really like Bassitt at home who is averaging 8 strikeout's per 9 at home. Not to mention he is 4-2 with a 3.5 ERA at home. Oakland is in a pennant race, and I don't see them dropping this game to Houser (4-4 with a 4.19). I like Oakland here, and I might pick them for tomorrow.

5.) Orioles (35-70) @ Padres (49-56)
Padres at home facing against Baltimore who has been hot lately. Both of them are using pitchers who have less than 20 innings pitched and an ERA above 5. That means its a slugfest, and I like San Diego in that regard. Not to mention they are playing at home.

6.) Braves (62-45) @ Nationals (57-49)
Teheran is 5-7 with a 3.42 ERA and is facing off in Washington against Fedde who is 1-1 with a 3.4 ERA. Last time Teheran faced the Nats he threw 5 innings and gave up 1 run. He also struck out 7. I like Teheran more than I like Fedde and I think Atlanta's bats are better as well. Might be some good odds for Atlanta

7.) Tampa (60-48) @ Boston (59-48)
I actually like Tampa here. Morton faces off against Price, and Morton has done well against the Sox this season. Last game in Boston he threw 6 scoreless innings and struck out 5. ALSO, Price's stats against the Rays this season are as follows (11 innings pitched), he is 0-1 with a 4.5 ERA and giving up 5 runs. Looks like the Rays are the better play here.

8.) Giants (54-52) @ Phillies (55-50)
These teams are almost similar record wise, yet I would argue the Phillies have way more talent on their roster. The Giants are still hot, any anything could go in this game. Beede is on the mound for SF and he is a youngster who is very unpredictable. I'd stay away.

THERE YOU HAVE IT BOYS, PICKS THAT I THINK YOU COULD MAKE A PLAY ON.
If I didn't list a game, its because I don't want anything to do with it (example Verlander vs Bieber in Cleveland).


IF you have any info to provide on tomorrows game feel free to post it,
As always let me know how the streak is going
<3
submitted by Kylester91 to MLB_9Innings [link] [comments]

bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 12th, 2019 (MLB)

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
With that being said, let’s get into it!
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
With the advent of my website, I will be handling this a little differently. It’s MUCH MUCH easier for me to just do all this on a spreadsheet to display on the site, so I am going to do that for baseball. I will be adding more information onto this. This is the simplest rough template I put together. But it will evolve. I will put stats in for batters, etc… It’s gonna be a one stop location for everything you need to know about a lineup
This is the google docs link (until the website is launched this weekend
Today’s Slate
Weather Games
Tigers vs Twins - PPD.
Pirates vs Nations - I don’t think this game will play out. The rain is already starting to dot the DC area and it’s just supposed to worsen as the night goes on. If this does play, I would avoid the SPs since I imagine there is a HUGE risk of a rain delay. And I like Williams and Corbin as pitchers. I guess the best case scenario is the game starts, Corbin goes 1 IP, they rain delay, and then they try to finish with the worst bullpen in the NL meaning having exposure to the Pirates may not be the worst thing. Though, again, the rain.
Pitchers (w/ Ownership Projections)
Great Pitchers
Trent Thornton (7800, RHP - 12% owned) vs TB - I have told you to play Thornton so far both times he has pitched. He has gotten you 26.1 and 19.8 DKP in both starts, amassing 15 K in 10.2 IP. Dude isn’t priced nearly high enough for his upside, and people don’t know who he is so he isn’t getting that ownership. Count me in as someone who is going to play extra lineups today so I can get Thornton in over the field. Not to mention this is a Rays team that has stuck out the 3rd most on the season.
Carlos Carrasco (11000, RHP - 23% owned) at KC - As far as I am concerned, there are 2 ways to approach this slate if you are a single entry player, as I normally am - First, you go Carrasco/Thornton and work in some medium priced bats. Or an expensive stack with some cheaper fill-ins. Or second, you go Thornton/Another cheap SP and try to go expensive with hitters. Cause, as of right now, the 3 most popular plays are E-Rod, Happ, and Carrasco, and I think that leaves the expensive bats (like Boston and NYY) underowned. Still, all of this ignores that Carrasco has the stuff to win the Cy and he is the best pitcher on this slate. And no one is really close. We assume that will translate into a good score, because it should.
Christopher Paddack (9700, RHP - 6%) at ARI - I guess I was wrong a second ago when I said there were two ways of approaching this slate. You can also pivot off of Carrasco and take Paddack who is priced significantly lower, will go significantly lower owned, and has just as much upside. The only problem with the kid is his leash. But how can you complain about a kid that has 11 K in 8.2 IP? He has a WHIP of 0.92 so far. He doesn’t give up runs, he doesn’t give up hits (though a few too many walks), and he has dominant, high-K stuff. People aren’t paying for him cause they don’t know who he is. But I do. And now you do too. And he is someone you should be playing almost every time he takes the mound. Especially against an Arizona team that has at least 3 guaranteed Ks every time through the order.
Great Pitcher???
JA Happ (9200, LHP - 28% owned) vs CWS - Happ is a good pitcher. I mean, he was. That’s kind of the point of this section. I have talked about how some pitchers fall off a cliff and some just give in to the inevitable decline that comes with aging. Happ is 36 years old and got to start off the year with 2 starts against the hapless Orioles (thank you). He didn’t make it out of the 4th inning either time and, if you check the lineup page, you will see that he has not had the greatest success. This is a tough White Sox team. I mean, they aren’t going to win a lot of games, but Abreu, Anderson, and Moncada especially should be able to give him fits, and that’s ignoring the talent of the young kids Eloy and Rondon. You can take a chance on Happ if you want. He certainly has the talent and the K upside. But, as the 2nd highest owned pitcher tonight, who has been unable to find his stuff this year, I would rather bet on age rearing its ugly head than Happ pitching like a 25 year old.
Eduardo Rodriguez (9000, LHP - 32% owned) vs BAL - Rodriguez clocks in as the most popular play of the day. And I get it. I’ve been playing E-Rod in advantageous opportunities for a couple years now. The problems here are several fold: First, BAL has proven they are annoying, especially against LHP. Just ask the aforementioned JA Happ or his teammate James Paxton, both of who are significantly better then Rodriguez. Second, E-Rod has looked AWFUL so far this year. A 2.75 WHIP with 6 BB and 7 K in 8 IP?? I know the A’s and Mariners are better than the O’s by light years, but that doesn’t mean E-Rod will magically have a good start. I know Vegas and everything else would tell you to play E-Rod. Given the ownership, how bad he’s looked, and how annoying this unknown O’s team is, I would rather stay away and hope he implodes, letting us get a huge edge over a plurality of the field.
Great Spots
Jake Arrieta (8800, RHP - 14% owned) at MIA - I know Arrieta is a long way away from the Cy Young pitcher we saw a couple years back, and I know that this year he has looked pretty awful (which is why you can’t look at just ERA for people). When you have 13 IP and 9 BB and 7 K there is something wrong. But I also know that the Marlins, who can’t stop being shut out, are as good a spot to get right as any in baseball. I don’t think there’s an offense nearly as bad, having seen them all now for a couple weeks. Plus, there is no way he should be the 6th highest owned pitcher here. Not against the Marlins. I know he hasn’t looked good, but neither have the Marlins.
Brad Keller (7100, RHP - 3% owned) vs CLE - We know a lot here- First, Keller is an extreme ground ball pitcher. What he lacks in any other facet is made up for by that fact. He has 19 IP and only 13 K which isn’t ideal for DFS, but this is an Indians team that will boost that projected K total. On top of that, he has really limited hits on the season - the fact that, over 19 IP he has 8 walks and an WHIP of almost 1 should tell you that, even when his control isn’t all there, he’s missing down (in his case). He’s not wild, leaving things over the plate. He’s intelligently working to people based on his strengths. Given how swing happy some of these Indians are, I would expect Keller to be one of the best starters of the day, and easily someone to pair with Thornton. I don’t understand how he is this low owned.
GPP Plays
Sandy Alcantara (7300, RHP - 3% owned) vs PHI - Sandy Alcantara had about as different a two starts as you could have. In his first go round, at home against the Rockies, he went 8 IP giving up 4 hits, 0 walks, 0 ER and striking out 6. Good for 31.6 DKP. His second start, on the road in Atlanta, he got through 4 innings, again giving up 4 hits, but this time he also gave up 2 ER because he walked 5 and struck out 0. Now the Braves are a really hard team to strikeout. And so far, the Phillies have been as well. But, in his home park (which is a massive pitcher’s park), at almost no ownership, I will take a GPPs chance in an MME situation on Alcantara being able to get 20+ DKP today. He is still a kid, and he was a pretty decent prospect so it’s really not crazy for him to be serviceable and completely under the radar. Especially considering, with a nasty sinker and changeup that break away from LHB, he could really make it hard on people like Bryce that people will be all over.
Corbin Burnes (8500, RHP - 1% owned) at LAD - I know Burnes has had a tough go of it to start off his rookie season. He starts his career against the Cards, Cubs and Dodgers. He also can’t stop giving up HR, which comes from a wild pitcher with dynamite stuff. As I pointed out yesterday, wild means you are just as likely to leave it over the plate. And he has given up SIX HOMERUNS IN 10 INNINGS. That is nuts. But what’s also nuts is he also also stuck out EIGHTEEN. This is a dude with the talent to be rookie of the year. If he could find his control for one start, you have someone with 40 DKP upside that, literally, no one will be on. He is currently the lowest projected owned pitcher. Which I TOTALLY get. But, at the same time, 18 K in 10 IP. How do you not take some kind of chance there.
Wade Miley (7000, LHP - 3% owned) at SEA - Oh boy. This is a tough one. I mean, Miley is a good pitcher. He’s not great. But he’s definitely better than 7k and 3% ownership. He has decent strikeout stuff, has good upside, and is going against a Mariners offense I am unsure about when it comes to LHB. I mean, Smith and Bruce should be useless. Gordon and Murphy should be useless. That’s 4/9ths right there. If he can work around the bigger bats, there’s plenty of outs and plenty of Ks here for Miley. And he’s going overlooked at that price.
Drew Pomeranz (8100, LHP - 5% owned) vs COL - Talk about overpriced. That is why no one wants to roster Pomeranz today. But we are ignoring the fact that the Rockies are awful away from home and, even though he’s had a lot of trouble finding the plate this season, he has still been able to strike out 11 in 9 IP. Apart from the middle of this lineup, there’s just not a lot that worries me here. I don’t like the price, but I do like the spot for him. And I think i’ll have to go there, at least a little bit.
No Thanks
TB Rays Opener Situation - I don’t want to play any of them, nor the long relievers that should take over. And they proved last year how insanely effective this is against hitters. So count me out for any TOR batters tonight, at all. Period. Especially with that AAA lineup the Blue Jays have rolled out.
Julio Urias (8700, LHP - 3%) vs MIL - If you want to pay almost 9k for a pitcher that, at most, will get you 5 IP today, and could easily get pulled in the 4th again, go right ahead. There are very few things in sports that get me as angry as the way the Dodgers manage their rotation. But nothing we can do about it, but ignore it completely.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Yankees vs Giolito (RHP, CWS) - Giolito is someone I have recommended before. He was the #1 prospect in all of baseball before he needed another Tommy John. Now he’s getting back into the swing of things. I certainly think it’s feasible to take a DEEP GPP flier on him given how low owned he will be, but odds are much better the Yankees are going to be able to make consistent contact and but a hammerin’ on young Luke.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Judge (OF - 5100), Sanchez (C - 4900), Bird (1B - 3900), then go back to the top and work down
Boston Red Sox vs David Hess (RHP, BAL) - The Boston Red Sox are projected to score as many runs today as a team would normally be projected to score in Coors Field. It’s not often you get a 10 total outside of Coors, especially when one of the teams is projected for under 4, but here we are. Hess has looked good his first 2 starts but let’s not kid ourselves. He’s not a good pitcher and his luck is going to run out sooner or later. I would take the chance that it is today, against one of the best lineups in baseball.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work down
Mets vs Kyle Wright (RHP, @ATL) - As I pointed out yesterday, the Mets hit a LOT better outside of Citi Field. So I am going to bump their projections when they aren’t there, and I am going to relish in the fact they are going to be consistently underpriced due to that fact. I think that, with Alonso out, people might be less on this stack as it is, but McNeil moving to the leadoff spot is a HUGE deal, and he should be a huge priority for you here. He’s a pure hitter, and Atlanta’s new stadium was made for LHB. Kyle Wright has looked fine and should find some Ks, but a lot less with Nimmo batting 8s and the lineup looking like it is.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Get McNeil (3B/OF - 4100) and Conforto (OF - 4700) in there, for sure, then I do love Rosario in the 2 hole and Dom Smith will go completely overlooked (especially on FD where he is only 2200 and could hit you a couple doubles or a HR today) You can play anyone though, except Nimmo.
Braves vs Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM) - While I may not like this stack as much as some of the others (given the fact Wheeler could be an ace for some teams), given how poor Wheeler has looked I think this is completely viable. If he continues to be unable to find the plate, this patient Braves team is going to draw 6 BB of him and force him from the start early, before getting to the weak part of the Mets bullpen. The Braves are also a tougher team to strikeout than the league average, meaning Wheeler is even worse off here than normal. I worry about his upside, but I can’t deny the Braves stack looks really nice tonight
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
*Preferred Players: Freeman and Inciarte first. Then Markakis. If you wanna do a mini stack and stop there that’s fine. Otherwise you can add in whoever else you want that is cheap enough. *
A’s vs Drew Smyly (LHP, @TEX) - This one is pretty simple. It’s math, right? You take one offense that has been smashing lately. You add the fact that they can murder LHP. You add one LHP that’s been underperforming and can’t stop letting people on base. You add a guarantee of 9 times AB. You add the fact they are underpriced. You add a positive weather environment. And you have a lot of runs scored for the A’s, somewhat under the radar. Well, yes please!
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Khris Davis has to be the lynchpin of any stack, or, if you want, any one-off you play from here. Given the way the lineup looks, I would also love to take Semien, Canha, and Phegley as well. There is also nothing wrong with Pinder, Profar, and then Chapman. But that’s the order I like em in.
Rangers vs Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) - Mike Fiers is a terrible pitcher that walks everyone and gives up a ton of hits and HR and doesn’t strike people out. Looks like a hell of a good day to stack an underpriced and underowned group of Rangers hitters that can really hurt him here.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Get Gallo in, who is a good bet for a HR today, then start at the top and work your way down. I also like Asdrubal a lot, but that’s just me
Padres vs Luke Weaver (RHP, @ARI) - The Padres get a huge park upgrade against a bad pitcher that people think is good. That means they are underowned and, if you look at the spreadsheet, they are also underpriced. I mean Luke Weaver is projected to be 18% owned, the 4th highest on the slate. Why the hell wouldn’t you want to stack against that, to increase your leverage on the field. Especially when, again, Luke Weaver is not good. Maybe he will be someday. But now is not the day.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 2
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start with Hosmer, who has a great chance for a HR as well, then start at the top and work down.
Dodgers vs Corbin Burnes (RHP, MIL) - I am more likely to pitch Burnes than stack against him. If anything, his HR stuff is more prone to one-offs than a stack but, given the fact he has given up 3 HR each start, you can still take a chance that more than one of these guys is going to get you a HR. It’s a tough MIL bullpen, and the only get 8 innings to hit if they are in the lead, but that doesn’t mean they can’t hit you a bunch of HR in that time.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 5
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Mini
Preferred Players: Pederson, Bellinger, Seager are the most preferred. In that order, considering price. Independent of price, Bellinger is in a great spot if he doesn’t K
Astros vs Wade LeBlanc (LHP, @SEA) - Wade LeBlanc is not a good pitcher. He’s 2-0 and that might make people think he’s better than he is, but it’s more a function of luck and run support. Right now, he’s going to be tested and it’s going to go poorly for someone that gives up a lot of HR, walks a ton of people, doesn’t K enough folks, and is going against a lineup of lefty killers
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full
*Preferred Players: Springer, Altube, Correa, Gurriel, Chirinos, and Tyler White, in that order. *
Giants vs Bettis (RHP, COL) - While I was going to recommend Bettis as a GPP play, he is 16% owned and how would that be a GPP play when he’s one of the most popular plays on the slate. And the reason he was a GPP play is because he has looked TERRIBLE to start the year. Even in TB, which is almost as good a pitcher’s park as SF, he got shelled. Just cause Bettis is on the road going against a poor team doesn’t mean he won’t get shelled again. There are still bats on this Giants team and no one is going to be on them at all.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 4
Chalk Level (1-10): 1
Preferred Stack: Mini or Full
Preferred Players: Start with Belt, who could get a HR today, followed by Panik, Crawford, Parra and Duggar.
One-Off Batters
White Sox RHB - While I don’t like these guys enough to stack them, Anderson, Abreu, Moncada, Eloy, and Rondon make for very, very interesting one offs. I would rank them in that order, as well. Anderson shouldn’t be more expensive than Abreu, but he has been hot and he has a much harder position to fill.
Jesus Sucre (C - 2800) - While there are certainly more flashy plays, odds are you are going to want to punt C most of the time. It lets you fit in better bats and better pitchers. Since, generally, the worst production comes from the Cs (which is why FanDuel eliminated it, essentially) it makes sense to take one as cheap as you can get it some days. Well here you have someone not batting last, at 2800, who has extreme splits that should give him as good a chance as any C to produce today, especially against a wild pitcher like E-Rod who is prone to leave one over the plate. This isn’t a safe play, mind you, but I will have some Sucre today for sure.
Rhys Hoskins (1B - 5000) - Rhys Hoskins is an extreme reverse splits hitter going against a righty whose stuff breaks in to him?? Oh my god, he could hit 2 HR today, even if Alcantara can take down the rest of the team.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Rhys Hoskins and Mookie Betts
Sorry this was so late! Hope you have enough time to dig into everything!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]

2017 r/baseball Power Rankings: Week 20 -- Cardinals Bust into Top 10 with Angels Following Close, Twins Gain Height while Rockies Might Shrink, Dodgers Unanimous Again, Top 4 Maybe Locked In

Have you been Around the Horn today?
THIS WEEK IN BASEBALL HISTORY
Have you read the Guidelines for Elimination Season?. You can skip it--pretty boring.
Transparency: this link shows all votes and some added statistics.
Hey sportsfans--it's time for Week 20 of baseball's Power Rankings--Call me Jack. Some years ago--never mind how particularly long precisely--having little or no karma in my account, and nothing particular to interest me in real life, I thought I would post baseball Power Rankings a little and see the angry, biassed parts of the website. Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth; whenever it is a hot, humid August day in my soul; whenever I find myself involuntarily pausing before AT&T Park, and pondering teams bringing up the rear of every division I check; and especially whenever my baseball anxieties get such an upper hand of me, that it requires a strong moral principle to prevent me from deliberately shit posting on baseball, and methodically downvoting all the haters--then, I account it high time to post Power Rankings as soon as I can. This is my substitute for caring about football.
EDIT: Due to the system innacurately handling on-time votes, the A's voter's...votes have been added. Here are the changes:
Marlins +1
Orioles -1
Mets +1
Tigers -1
Apologies.
  • We are looking for a temp. Royals voter next week only. See thread for details.
Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week.
Please treat voters with respect when questioning them--it's all volunteer work.
Total Votes: 28 of 30 possible.
# Team Δ Comment Record
1 Dodgers 0 Vegas has set the Dodgers oveunder for wins at 110, and given them 13:2 odds to break the all time wins record of 116. I'm personally somewhere in between, maybe 112. 112-50. How ridiculous is that? In news that may increase that number, Kershaw could be back by the end of August. #sorrynotsorry 83-34
2 Astros 0 The sky has fallen and the Astros suck again. This can all be traced to the trade deadline. At least Lunhow has realized his mistake and grabbed Tyler Clippard. 72-45
3 Nationals 0 Man that was scary. Love or hate his personality, it's hard to argure against the idea that a healthy Bryce harper is good for baseball. What looked like a severe ligament tear ended up being a bone bruise, and while I'm sure that's no fun for him, it does mean he'll be returning before the end of the season in all likelyhood. 70-46
4 Red Sox 0 We are 9-1 in our last 10 games, which is good. Starting pitching and offense look great. That said, there are question marks concerning the bullpen and it's use. Friday was a rough game to stomach, and so was Sunday. It's seems as though the baseball gods flip a coin for every Matt Barnes outing to see if he'll walk half the batters he faces. Addison Reed has not had a smooth acclimation to Boston. On the season, we have not dont too well against New York or the division. Our schedule moving forward is not the easiest, but if we can remain on top tot he end of the month, I think we'll become the team to beat in the AL, regardless of Houston's record. 67-50
5 Indians 0 The Tribe used a strong 4-2 showing last week to put 2 more games on their AL Central lead. The most promising statistic: six games, six excellent outings by starting pitchers. 63-52
6 D-Backs 0 When will I find happiness again 65-52
7 Yankees 0 Winning only one game off of Boston this weekend is really kind of disappointing, especially after the heroics in Friday's game. Now the Sox stand 5.5 games ahead of the Yankees, and it seems like we're more likely to sneak in with a WC berth instead. These close games have really exposed how weak our bench is, and Bird/Holliday/Starman can't get back to the team fast enough. 61-55
8 Cubs +1 The Cubs lost a series to the Giants, then won against the Diamondbacks. The division remains tight, especially as the red-hot Cardinals go on a tear and the Brewers and Pirates remain persistent. The upcoming schedule is much lighter than a typical week, but without Contreras in the lineup they're going to need as many bats as possible to step up. 61-55
9 Rockies -1 65-52
10 Cardinals +3 After struggling all season, it may be tempting for you to read meaning into the recent success. My recommendation would be to not set yourself up for disappointment. 61-57
11 Angels +4 The Angels will have the most wins in Seattle this August. 61-58
12 Brewers -2 Of course it's a walk off wild pitch (second this year) that busts the Brewers losing streak. Travis Shaw was seen in a walking boot, but is considered day to day. It seems like the Neil Walker trade was perfectly timed. The offense did finally wake up, but nota fter the drought that dropped Milwaukee to third in the division, at least it's only a two game deficit right now 61-59
13 Rays -2 The Rays had a tough time scoring runs vs the Sox and the Indians this week. The offense of this team has been mostly extinguished with the exception of Longo, who seems to be the one of the few productive players, though slumping Dickerson is still hitting HRs, the key one to provide the only win of the week. The good news is that the schedule gets a little easier and the squad plays several teams in the WC race, so their 2017 playoff density is pretty much in their own hands. 59-60
14 Royals -2 Fuck St. Louis. Fuck Rally Cat. Fuck your shitty arch. *disclaimer: I like cats and St. Louis was fun to visit. But, you know, Royals fan. So fuck your city again. 59-58
15 Mariners -1 The 2017 Seattle Mariners starting pitchers have averaged a 5.15 FIP for the season. As a unit, their best comparison to an individual pitcher is Jeremy Hellickson. 2017 Hellickson. On the mound. Every night. It's a far cry from the promised rotation of Felix, Kuma, Paxton, and Smyly (all of whom are currently on the DL). Also, Yonder is hot garbage thus far. 59-60
16 Twins +4 What a great week! 6-1 and we were three outs from a perfect week (thanks FO for selling our only reliable bullpen arm...) It's given our fanbase hope as we're only a half game out of the wild card based on the Angels playing three more games and going 2-1 in those. We're going to miss Garcia and Kitzler, and honestly I think our FO sold at the deadline and screwed us out of a legitimate shot as rising above the mediocrity that is the AL WC race. 59-57
17 Rangers -1 Taking 2 of three against the Astros, with a chance to win the 3rd game, was nice. Hopefully we'll be able to build on that momentum next week and embed ourselves deeper in the Wild Card race. 56-60
18 Pirates 0 58-60
19 Marlins 0 Despite a 1-3 series loss to the Nationals leading off the week, the Fish were able to bounce back and unleash Sweepy for the 4th time this season at the Rockies' expense. Giancarlo Stanton has been deconstructing baseballs left and right. He's hit 9 home runs over the last 10 games and 42 homers so far this year, good enough to match the Marlins' single-season record set by Gary Sheffield in 1996. It's basically a certainty that Big G will break that record soon. The only question now is "by how much". 56-60
20 Orioles -3 I feel like I can keep reusing comments from past weeks. Beckham, Machado, Schoop, Mancini: Still hitting the crap outta the ball. Pitching: Still suspect. The O's did have a pitcher strike out at least 10 batters in consecutive starts this week, the first time that has happened since the Nixon administration, probably. 58-60
21 Blue Jays +1 What every Toronto Blue Jays fan is thinking right now 56-61
22 Mets +2 Team Dads: Daddison Neil is my dad Dad Jay Bruce :'( 53-62
23 Tigers -2 Two bits of news this week. First, Nicholas Castellanos has begun to take reps in the outfield before games, which points to the possibility of him playing some RF down the stretch after Jeimer Candelario gets called up. Second, it has been reported that Detroit has failed to reach a trade with the team that claimed Ian Kinsler off revocable waivers, which means that Kinsler will almost certainly remain in the D through the end of the year. This week: 3 at TEX, 3 vs LAD. 53-64
24 Braves -1 It took a weird route to get there, but the middle-infield combo of Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies is intact at the major league level for the first time. It was a poor week results wise, with the Braves' bizarre weakness to the Phillies showing up once again. Perhaps the biggest question on fans' minds: Can Ronald Acuna be this good, and could we see the 19-year-old outfielder in the major leagues soon? 52-63
25 Athletics 0 Sean Manaea, who happens to be our ace after the Gray trade, did not look like a major league pitcher in his last start against the O's, letting them walk all over him and highlighting concerns about his preformance as of late. But hey, Matt Chapman 52-66
26 Reds 0 Hunter Greene made his minor league debut this past week, as a designated hitter. We lost on a wild pitch the other day, which would have stung a lot worse 3 months ago. We've been so bad for so long that our new and creative ways to lose aren't even new and creative anymore. 49-69
27 Padres 0 Andy Green was given a three year extension, that will have him in charge of the team until 2021. The Padres actually have pretty good patience with managers. From 1995, to the middle of 2015, only Bruce Bochy and Bud Black managed the team. It's reassuring to the fans as well as the players that we have stability at that position. That being said, I believe the reason we keep managers for so long is that we don't give them rosters that have an expectation of success. In Green's short tenure, I think it would be fair to say the team has at least slightly outperformed the spring projections. We won't know for at least 2-3 years if the roster we've built is capable of creating win projections that would create an expectation of success. 51-66
28 Giants 0 Please be okay Joe Panik 47-72
29 White Sox 0 The Sox swept the Astros like it was 2005, and because of that here's a video of Paul Konerko's grand slam from that series for everyone to enjoy. In other news, Reynaldo Lopez made his White Sox debut on Friday giving up 2 runs in 6 innnings while striking out 6. 45-70
30 Phillies 0 Aaron Nola is unstoppable 43-72
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